Cardinals vs. Pirates Runline Best Bet

by | Last updated May 22, 2022 | mlb

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Date: Sunday, May 22nd, 11:35 ET

Location: PNC Park

TV: Peacock

Money Line: Cardinals -150 / Pirates +126

Total Line: 9.0

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St. Louis: Steven Matz (3-3, 6.03)
Pittsburgh: Bryse Wilson (0-2, 5.67)

Cardinals Projected Lineup

Dylan Carlson RF
Brendan Donovan SS
Yadier Molina C
Nolan Gorman 2B
Nolan Arenado 3B
Harrison Bader CF
Juan Yepez LF
Tommy Edman SS
Paul Goldschmidt 1B
Steven Matz P

Pirates Projected Lineup

Jack Suwinski RF
Rodolfo Castro SS
Yoshi Tsutsugo 1B
Josh VanMeter 2B
Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B
Michael Perez C
Bryan Reynolds CF
Daniel Vogelbach 1B
Ben Gamel LF
Bryse Wilson P


St. Louis Cardinals: 22-18-0 SU / OU 19-19-2 / Run Line W/L 22-18-0
Pittsburgh Pirates: 16-23-0 SU / OU 14-20-5 / Run Line W/L 19-20-0

The Pittsburgh Pirates host the St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday, May 22nd at PNC Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 11:35 ET. The MLB Odds Board places St. Louis as the favorite (-150), with an OU line set at 9.0.

Recent Form

The St. Louis Cardinals will look to add another win to their resume after pulling out a slim 5-4 win over the Pittsburgh. The Pittsburgh came up with 7 hits leading to 7 runs against St. Louis’s pitchers. The Cardinals lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up 10 hits, leading to 5 runs. Heading into this game, St. Louis was the betting favorite, at -134.0. So far, the team has been the favorite in 22 of their games, winning at a rate of 64.0%. When looking at the over-under result, the Cardinals and Pittsburgh matched the line set at 9.0 runs. Currently, St. Louis has an over-under record of 19-19-2.

The Cardinals are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 3-2 over their last 5 games. However, even with an above .500, their run differential sits at just -4 (last 5). Overall, St. Louis is averaging 4.55 runs per game. Over their last 5 contests, they have been producing at a similar rate, at 4.55. So far, St. Louis has won over half of their 13 series played, going 7-3-3.

The Pirates are coming off a tight loss to the Cardinals, dropping the game 5-4. On their way to giving up 5 runs, the Pirates staff allowed 10 hits. With their 7 hits, the Pirates could only muster 4 runs. Leading into Pittsburgh’s loss they were the underdogs, getting 124.0 on the moneyline. In their 31 games as the underdog, their straight-up win percentage sits at 39.0%. With an over-under line set at 9.0, the Pirates and the Cardinals combined to match this total. This result drops Pittsburgh’s OU record down to 14-20-5.

In their last 5 contests, Pirates have just 1 win, going 1-4. This recent slump is backed by a scoring margin of -18 over their last 5 games. If Pittsburgh is going to pick up their play, they need to improve their offensive performance. Over their last 5 contests, they are averaging just 2.0 runs per game, compared to a season average of 3.31. Pittsburgh has a below .500 series record of just 3-7-3.

Pitching Matchup

St. Louis will roll with Steven Matz (3-3) as their starter. So far, Matz has put together an ERA of 6.03. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.64 innings. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the left-hander, with a batting average of 0.284. Opposing batters have been able to drive the ball with power against Matz, averaging 1.94 homers per 9 innings pitched. On the season, Steven Matz has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 27.0% while averaging 5.5 K’s per game. Throughout the season, Matz has avoided walking batters, allowing just 1.93 per contest.

Pittsburgh will roll with Bryse Wilson (0-2) as their starter. To date, Wilson has an ERA of 5.67 while lasting an average of 3.86 innings per appearance. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, with a batting average of 0.287. So far, Wilson has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 1.0 home runs per 9 innings. Overall, he is averaging 3.14 per game, on a K rate of 18.0%. Command has been a problem for Wilson, as he is giving up 4.0 walks per outing.

St. Louis vs Pittsburgh History

For the season, St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates will be playing their 5th game of the season. St. Louis has the lead in the series at 4-1. The over-under record in this series sits at 2-1-1. The average run total in these games is 8.68 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 4.2 runs. Going back to last year, St. Louis won the season series, 12 games to 7. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 7-9-3. Last year, the Cardinals and Pirates averaged 8.68 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.63 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • St. Louis is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
  • St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
  • Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against St. Louis
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh’s last 7 games at home

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Heading into this matchup, both Steven Matz and Bryse Wilson have inflated ERAs. However, advanced stats show that Matz has pitched better than his stats suggest. Through 8 starts, the leftie has an expected ERA of just 3.92 and an xFIP of 2.87. I recommend taking the Cardinals to cover the runline.

Free MLB Pick: Cardinals -1.5 Runline.

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