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Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers Pick 4/6/19

by | Apr 6, 2019 | mlb

Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers 4/6/19
Time: 7:10 pm ET
Where: Miller Park, Milwaukee, WI
Listed Pitchers: Corbin Burnes (Mil) vs. Cole Hamels (Chi)
TV: FS-1, NBCS Chicago

Moneyline: Cubs +114 / BrewCrew -124 (WagerWeb)
Over/Under: 8.5

Milwaukee stayed hot, beating the beleaguered Chicago Cubs Friday night by a football score. The Brewers now shoot for the series victory Saturday evening. Who do we like for here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Saturday’s MLB betting odds opened Milwaukee and Burnes at around -120 over Chicago and Hamels, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Early betting action then dipped that line a nickel or so, to around -115.

Cubs vs. Brewers Set-Up

Milwaukee grabbed the opener of this series Friday night 13-10, grabbing the cash as a -120 favorite. The Brewers scored two runs in the bottom of the first, four in the second and two more in the third against a pitcher, Jose Quintana, they struggled against last year. The Cubs pulled to within 8-5 in the fifth inning and to within three again in the ninth, but that was as close as they got.

Also, Friday’s game blew past its total of 8.5 runs.

Milwaukee now owns a six-game winning streak, while Chicago owns a six-game losing streak.

Cubs pitching has now allowed at least six runs six games in a row. Chicago also committed two more errors Friday night, giving them 10 on the season, second-most in the Majors.

The Cubs took the season series from the Brewers last year 11 games to nine, but Milwaukee is 9-3 in the previous 12 meetings.

Saturday’s Starting Arms

Burnes (0-0, 7.20) opened this season by making his first MLB start, allowing four runs on six hits, including three home runs, through five innings, of a 5-4 victory over St. Louis last Sunday. He also struck out 12 while walking just one, and in the end, needed 87 pitches to get those 15 outs.

Last year Burnes posted a 2.61 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP through 38 innings of mostly situational relief work.

This will be Burnes’ first-ever start against the Cubs. Last season he made three appearances against Chicago, allowing two runs on four hits through 4 1/3 innings.

Lefty Hamels (0-0, 9.00) opened this season with an iffy effort last Sunday at Texas, giving up five runs – four on one swing of the bat – on six hits through five innings of a game the Cubs eventually lost 11-10. Hamels needed 100 pitches to get 15 outs, so we wonder if his leash might be shortened for Saturday.

Last year, splitting time between the Rangers and Chicago, Hamels finished 16/32 on quality starts. Texas went 7-13 with Hamels, the Cubs 7-5. And the totals leaned toward the unders by a 21-10 margin.

In his only start, last season against the Brewers Hamels held them to two runs and five hits through six innings, although Chicago lost that game 4-3.

Saturday’s Batting Splits

The Cubs are batting a healthy .343/.414/.568 against right-handed pitching this season.

The Brewers are bombing .381/.469/.714 against left-handed pitching this season, although that’s against a sample of just 42 at-bats. This lineup also hit five homers Friday night, none of them by guys named Yelich.

The Bullpens

Following another generous effort Friday night the Chicago bullpen has now allowed 25 ER on 34 hits and 21 walks through 26 1/3 innings of work. That’s an ERA of 8.54 and a WHIP of 2.09.

After a generous effort of its own Friday night, the Milwaukee bullpen has now allowed 14 ER on 24 hits and eight walks through 31 1/3 innings this season.

Totals Report

  • The overs are 6-1 in Cubs games this season.
  • The unders are 4-3-1 in Brewers games this season.
  • The unders skewed 15-5 in Cubs-Brewers games last season.
  • The unders went 40-39-2 in games played at Miller Park last season.

Free MLB Pick

This game sets up as a double play with the MLB streak betting method, and while we don’t always abide by it, we’re playing it today. The Brewers are hot, and for the moment should be played. Meanwhile, the Cubs will probably turn things around eventually, but until they show some life, we’re avoiding or fading them. We like Milwaukee for Saturday’s free MLB pick.

Take the Milwaukee Brewers -115