Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers (9/5/18)
Time: 8:10 PM ET
Where: Miller Park. Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Listed Pitchers: Jose Quintana (CHC) & Jhoulys Chacin (MIL)
TV: FOX Sports – Wisconsin & NBC Sports – Chicago
Moneyline: CHC (-110) / MIL (-110)
The Brew Crew has pounded the National League-leading Chicago Cubs to a pulp thru two games of this three-game set at Miller Park. Milwaukee’s won 4-3 and 11-1 the past two days and looks to make it a clean sweep Wednesday night at Miller Park. It’s the 16th meeting of 19 slated for the Regular Season between these two NL Central foes. Chicago currently leads the season series 9-6 thru 15 games and has outscored the Brewers 48-42. Chicago owns the best record in the NL, while Milwaukee is just three off their pace with 24 crucial games remaining down the stretch.
The Cubs have lost back-to-back games against division-rival Milwaukee, but they’re still comfortably in first place in the National League Central division, three games ahead of Milwaukee. Joe Maddon’s club is the best offensive team in the NL, having scored 663 runs thus far. Chicago has allowed 550 runs which is third-best in the NL and their +113 run-differential is second-best in the NL. On the road, the Cubbies are 37-33 (.529) this season.
Brew Crew Riding a nice buzz
Milwaukee is in the thick of a tight playoff race in the NL. Overall, the Brewers are 79-61 (.564) this year which is good for second place in the NL Central division. They’re four games behind their opponent, the Chicago Cubs. However, the Brew Crew is 1.5 games ahead of St. Louis for the top spot in the NL Wild Card Standings. Milwaukee is also three games ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. Funny enough, the Brew Crew is barely inside the top half of the NL in these statistics: runs scored (635 – 7th), runs allowed (594 – 7th) and run-differential (+41 – 7th). Despite the statistical mediocrity, the Brewers are a stout 42-26 (.618) at Miller Park so far this season.
Quintana vs. Chacin
Chicago’s left-hander, Jose Quintana (11-9, 4.21 ERA & 1.35 WHIP) has been on-and-off this season. In his last seven starts, Quintana’s gone 2-3 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Quintana has started four games against the Brewers this year, compiling a 2-1 record to go along with a 2.63 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Quintana’s started 15 road games this year, amassing a 5-6 record with a 3.73 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.
Jhoulys Chacin (14-5, 3.53 ERA & 1.21 WHIP) has had a tremendous season for the Milwaukee Brewers. In his last five starts, the right-hander’s gone 4-1 with a 2.03 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Chacin has faced the Cubbies twice this season, compiling a 2-0 record with a 0.00 ERA and 0.92 ERA. At Miller Park, Chacin is 5-3 over 11 starts with a 3.66 ERA and 1.28 WHIP this season.
Where’s the value?
Vegas has this showdown labeled as a near toss-up. Both teams are -115 on the money line, which means either squad would have to win 52.4% of the time to make betting on them profitable. Chicago’s won 60% of the games played between these two clubs this season, but Milwaukee has won back-to-back and four out of four at Miller Park. Chacin has been virtually flawless versus the Cubbies this year, while Quintana’s been solid in his own right. However, Quintana has stunk up the joint lately and hasn’t shown any signs of returning to his earlier season form. This game will have a playoff-like atmosphere, and I give the edge to the hometown Brew Crew. According to my calculations, the Brewers own a 61.2% chance to win this contest. Consequently, we have an 8.8% edge against the number on the money line with the Brew Crew. All of the value lies with the Milwaukee Brewers on the money line (-115) in this National League Central showdown Wednesday night at Miller Park.