Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick 7/27/19
Chicago Cubs (55-48) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (55-50), 7/27/19
Time: 7:10 pm ET Saturday, July 27
Where: Miller Park, Milwaukee, WI
Listed Pitchers: Jon Lester (9-6, 3.87 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) vs. Chase Anderson (5-2, 3.90, 1.24)
TV: ABC 7, FS Wisconsin
Moneyline: Brewers -115/Cubs +105
Over/Under: 9.5
Milwaukee grabbed a series-opening victory Friday night over the Cubbies, coming from behind with three late runs off the Chicago bullpen. In the process, the Brewers knocked the Cubs out of first place in the NL Central. How are we playing Saturday’s game with our free MLB pick?
MLB Betting Odds
Saturday’s MLB betting odds opened Chicago at around -115 over Milwaukee, with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Early betting action then flipped the Brewers into -115 favorites.
Cubs vs. Brewers Set-Up
Milwaukee stole the opener of this series Friday night 3-2, winning as a -115 favorite on the MLB betting line. Chicago led that game 2-0 but the Brewers scored one run in the bottom of the seventh inning and two runs with two outs in the bottom of the eighth, then hung on from there.
Also, Friday’s game played under a total of 9.5 runs.
With Friday’s loss, the Cubs are just 1-4 over their last five games.
With Friday’s win, Milwaukee is 7-3 over its last ten games.
Big-picture, at 55-48 Chicago now trails division-leading St. Louis by one game in the NL Central, with the 55-50 Brewers two games out. The Cubs are also tied with Washington for the lead in the National League wild-card race, with Milwaukee one game back.
The Brewers now lead the season series with Chicago four games to three.
More picks: Get Dan’s analysis plus Astros/Cards pick >>>
Saturday’s Starting Arms
Anderson, by our strict standards, is just 1/15 on quality starts this season and 0 for his last eight. But a short leash plays a big part in those numbers. Seven times this season he’s pitched to within three or fewer outs of a QS, only to get pulled. Monday he held Cincinnati to two runs and seven hits through 5 2/3 innings of a 6-5 Milwaukee loss. And over his last three starts, he’s only allowed four runs and 11 hits through 16 1/3 innings.
Milwaukee is 7-8 with Anderson this year, and while just 1-4 over his last five starts that’s not his fault.
Over four starts against the Cubs last year Anderson allowed just three runs and 12 hits through 24 innings. Thanks to some poor run support the Brewers only managed to split those four games.
Lefty Lester is 9/19 on quality starts this year and three for his last five. Eight days ago he gave up four runs and 12 hits (!) through six innings against San Diego, although the Cubs won that game 6-5. And over his four starts previous to that he gave up 12 runs – but only seven earned – and 24 hits through 24 2/3 innings.
The Cubs are 12-7 with Lester this season and 5-1 over his last six starts.
Over his last three starts against Milwaukee, two last year and one earlier this season, Lester allowed just three ER and 20 hits through 18 1/3 innings. Chicago won two of those three games.
Saturday’s Batting Splits
Chicago is batting .258/.337/.458 against right-handed pitching this season. But the Cubs have also scored a total of just 15 runs over their last five games.
Milwaukee is batting .250/.327/.457 against left-handed pitching this season. The Brewers have also scored at least five runs in nine of their last ten games.
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The Bullpens
After blowing Friday night’s game, the Cubs bullpen now owns a 4.17 ERA on the season and a 1.37 WHIP, while allowing a .736 OPS.
The Brewers pen owns a 4.46 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP while allowing a .709 OPS.
Totals Report
- Unders are 52-48 in Cubs games this season.
- Unders are 53-48 in Brewers games this season.
- Unders are 27-26 in games played at Miller Park this season.
- Unders are 5-2 in Cubs-Brewers games this season.
- Overs are a combined 20-12 when Anderson and Lester start this season.
Free MLB Pick
We’re calling the pitching match-up here a push, along with the splits with the sticks and the bullpen comparison. So this game is a pick ’em on our own private MLB betting line. But this series, with these two evenly-matched teams, seems destined to come down to a rubber match. So we’re taking the underdog price with Chicago.
