Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres Pick 6/7/21

by | Jun 7, 2021 | mlb

Chicago Cubs (33-26) vs. San Diego Padres (36-25)

When: 10 p.m., Monday, June 7

Where: Petco Park, San Diego

Moneyline: CHC +115/SD -125 (GTBets - Get a 100% REAL CASH bonus up to $500!)

Runline: Cubs +1.5/Padres -1.5

Total: 7.5

Starting Pitchers: Adbert Alzolay (4-4, 3.62 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) vs. Ryan Weathers (2-2, 2.06 ERA, 0.99 WHIP)

Let’s Do This Again

The Cubs would be thrilled to see Alzolay replicate the performance he gave in his most recent start, which came against the Padres at Wrigley Field. In that matchup, Alzolay was boss on the hill from start to finish, holding San Diego to just one run and three hits in five innings. In fact, Alzolay has been very consistent in each of his past three starts, striking out six in two of them and seven against the Padres. Over that stretch, he’s given up an average of one run per start.

His big question is whether he’ll get the run support he needs from a Cub offense that’s been a lot less consistent than he has. When Alzolay gets at least four runs of support, the Cubs are 4-0. When the Cubs can’t give him that, the record drops to a mere 1-4, with the lone exception coming on May 28 in a 1-0 win over Cincinnati. The run support hasn’t come often on the road; only once have the Cubs picked up a road win in 2021 with Alzolay on the mound.

You Start Hitting, San Diego

The Padres’ slump continued against the Mets, as they put forth another performance of two runs or less, marking the fifth time in seven games that they’ve failed to clear that low bar. The Padres’ most significant problem is that they’re not stringing hits together and creating the big innings they need when facing the opposition they have in recent games. There’s nothing wrong with a bad day against Jacob deGrom, but San Diego has really been struggling at the dish as of late, managing just a .218 average over its last ten games.

The main thing the Padres have to start doing is manufacturing runs and not relying on the long ball as much as they have to this point. Against the Cubs, only two of San Diego’s runs in the entire three-game series were actually pieced together, with the rest coming because someone launched a pitch into the seats. When a team’s power takes the day off, the results can get ugly pretty quickly if it can’t manufacture any runs.

Keep it Down

While Alzolay will be hoping to repeat his performance at Wrigley, Ryan Weathers will be looking for improvement. Weathers is really the wrong kind of pitcher to go out to Wrigley because he tends not to miss bats and to allow more fly balls than ground balls. The problem with that, of course, is that Wrigley tends to turn a fair amount of fly balls into cheap home runs, which isn’t something that happens at pitcher-friendly Petco.

A sign of how unfriendly the Friendly Confines were to Weathers comes in his ERA, which jumped 75 points after just one start at Wrigley. Weathers hadn’t given up more than two earned runs in a start all season before going to Chicago’s North Side, but he got tagged for four at Wrigley because he served up a pair of two-run home runs and gave the Cubs all the offense they would need. At Petco, the ball shouldn’t carry anywhere near as much, which gives Weathers an excellent bounce-back opportunity.

Betting Trends

  • The Cubs are 13-3 in their past 16 Monday games.
  • The Cubs are 15-6 in their past 21 games.
  • The Padres are 13-3 in their past 16 home games.
  • The Padres are 2-6 in their past eight games.
  • The under is 6-1 in the Cubs’ past seven as an underdog.
  • The over is 7-2-1 in the Padres’ past ten after a loss.
  • The over is 5-2 in the past seven meetings in San Diego.
  • The Cubs have won five of seven in San Diego.

Weather Report

With temperatures at 62 degrees and winds blowing at just seven miles per hour to right-center, the weather shouldn’t affect anything.

Dan’s pick

I trusted San Diego on Sunday and got burned, so I’m going to take a shot with the Cubs this time around. Chicago is playing better baseball at the moment, and the Cubs seem to have San Diego’s number over the past few seasons. This worries me a bit because the Cubs have been a poor road team, but they’ve found a lot of success at Petco Park as of late. I’ll take a shot with the Cubs. Some games are tough to pick ahead of time. When these scenarios occur, it’s a good idea to watch a bit of the game and then jump in once you have a feel for what’s happening. The absolute BEST live wagering platform on the web can be found at Bovada Sportsbook. Your credit card WILL work there for deposits, they’ll give you a generous 50% real cash bonus and you receive rebates on ALL your bets; win or lose! Click here to make the switch today! You’ll be glad you did!

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