Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction 9/29/19

by | Sep 29, 2019 | mlb

Chicago Cubs (84-77) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (90-71), 9/29/19
Time: 3:15 pm ET Sunday, Sept. 29
Where: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Listed Pitchers: Derek Holland (2-4, 5.47 ERA, vs. Jack Flaherty (10-8, 2.85,
TV: ABC 7, FS Midwest

Moneyline: NA
Over/Under: NA

Only two games mean anything on this final day of MLB’s regular season, and one of them takes place in St. Louis, where the Cardinals will try to secure a division title against the rival Cubs. St. Louis has lost the first two games of this series, but still leads Milwaukee by one game in the NL Central. Meanwhile, Chicago is playing spoiler the last couple of days and doing a good job of it. How are we betting this game with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

As of this writing Sunday’s MLB betting odds were holding off on lining this game.

Cubs vs. Cardinals Set-Up

Chicago took the opener of this season-ending series Friday night 8-2, then won Saturday’s contest 8-6. The Cubs took the cash Friday as +195 underdogs on the MLB betting line, then cashed on Saturday at +175.

With Saturday’s win Chicago has won two straight, following a season-crushing nine-game losing skid.

With Saturday’s loss St. Louis owns a four-game losing skid.

At 90-71 overall the Cardinals lead the NL Central by just one game over second-place Milwaukee. St. Louis has already clinched at least a spot in Tuesday’s National League wild-card game, but of course, they’d much rather win the division and avoid having to go against Washington and Max Scherzer in a one-off affair Tuesday.

At 84-77 the Cubbies are out of the playoff picture but are enjoying playing spoiler. This game also may be the Cubs’ last under Manager Maddon, whose future with the team is up in the air at the moment.

These two teams have split the season series so far nine games apiece.

Sunday’s Starting Arms

Flaherty, by our strict standards, is 17/33 on quality starts this season and six for his last seven. Tuesday he held Arizona scoreless on one hit through seven innings, with 11 strikeouts, although the Cardinals eventually lost that game 3-2. And over his last seven starts, he’s allowed just seven runs – six earned – and 23 hits through 49 innings, with 63 whiffs.

On the season St. Louis is only 16-17 with Flaherty, but 6-3 over his last nine outings.

Over five starts against the Cubs this season Flaherty allowed ten runs and 17 hits through 29 1/3 innings. The Cardinals won three of those five games.

Lefty Holland is making his first start of this season for Chicago, after 19 appearances in relief. Most recently he tossed 2/3 of an inning of scoreless relief against Pittsburgh Tuesday, and over his last seven appearances, he’s allowed zero runs and just one hit through four total innings of work.

Over three relief appearances against the Cardinals this season, including one while he was still with San Francisco, Holland allowed one run and three hits through 3 1/3 innings.

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Sunday’s Batting Splits

Chicago is batting .257/.335/.461 against right-handed pitching this season. The Cubs have also scored 16 runs through the first two games of this series. But this lineup is operating without several regulars, with Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Nicholas Castellanos all out dealing with injuries.

St. Louis is batting .245/.326/.422 against left-handed pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Chicago bullpen owns a 3.99 ERA this season and a 1.35 WHIP while allowing a .724 OPS.

The St. Louis pen owns a 3.83 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP while holding foes to an ML-low .671 OPS. Numbers like those are why we rank this unit among the top two or three bullpens in Baseball this season.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 80-74 in Cubs games this season.
  • Unders are 85-68 in Cardinals games this season.
  • Unders are 45-32 in games played at Busch Stadium this season.
  • Unders are 10-8 in Cubs-Cards games this season.
  • Unders are 18-12 with Flaherty this season.

Free MLB Pick

St. Louis gets our handicapping check-marks in the pitching match-up and the bullpen comparison, and it needs this one for the division title. So we like the Cardinals here. And in chasing a better price, we’ll give the run and a half and play St. Louis against the run line.

Take the Cards on the Run Line (-1.5)