Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals Pick

by | May 19, 2019 | mlb

Chicago Cubs (26-17) vs. Washington Nationals (19-26), Sunday, 5/19/19

Time: 7:05 pm ET
Where: Nationals Park, Washington, DC
Listed Pitchers: Kyle Hendricks (3-4, 2.86 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) vs. Jeremy Hellickson (2-2, 6.00, 1.67)
TV: ESPN

Moneyline: Cubs -130/Nationals +120 (WagerWeb)
Over/Under: 10un -110

After splitting the first two games of this three-game series, the Cubs and Nationals meet for a rubber match Sunday night in DC. Which way are we going here with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Sunday’s MLB betting odds opened Chicago and Hendricks at around -140 over Washington and Hellickson, with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Early betting action then dipped that line about a dime, to around -130, and bumped that total to 10.

The Cubs could also be found getting around +115 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

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Cubs vs. Nationals Set-Up

Chicago took the opener of this series Friday night 14-6, beating Max Scherzer as a +145 underdog. But Washington then won Saturday 5-2 with Stephen Strasburg as a -140 favorite.

The Cubs banged out 18 hits Friday, then managed just four on Saturday.

Also, Friday’s game played over a total of 8.5 runs while Saturday’s game played under 8.5.

With Saturday’s loss, Chicago is 1-3 over its last four games. But at 26-17 overall the Cubs still lead the NL Central by a game and a half over second-place Milwaukee.

With Saturday’s victory, the Nationals are 3-1 over their last four games. At 19-26 overall Washington sits in fourth place in the NL East, seven games behind first-place Philadelphia.

This series is the first meeting this season between these two teams. Last year Chicago took the season series from Washington four games to three.

Sunday’s Starting Arms

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played last August at Wrigley Field, a 3-2 Cubs victory.

Hellickson is just 1/7 on quality starts this season and 0 for his last six. Tuesday he gave up five runs on six hits and four walks through five innings of a 6-2 Nationals loss to the Mets. And over his last five starts, he’s allowed 20 earned runs and 32 hits, including seven dingers, through 22 1/3 innings.

Washington is 3-4 with Hellickson this season, 0-3 over his last three starts.

In his only start last year against Chicago, that 3-2 Nats loss, Hellickson gave up two runs on zero hits and four walks through 5 2/3 innings.

Hendricks is 4/8 on quality start this year and three for his last three. Tuesday he held Cincinnati to one run on three hits through eight innings of a 3-1 Cubs win, and over his previous three starts he’s allowed just one ER and 12 hits through 25 innings, with a complete-game shutout of St. Louis 15 days ago.

On the season Chicago is 4-4 with Hendricks, 3-0 over his last three starts.

In two starts last year against Washington Hendricks allowed three ER and 14 hits through 11 innings. The Cubs won both those games.

Sunday’s Batting Splits

Chicago is batting .259/.347/.452 this season against right-handed pitching. But this lineup has also been held to three runs or less six times in its last 10 games.

Washington is batting .232/.305/.379 against RH pitching this season. This lineup has also scored at least five runs each of its last four games.

The Bullpens

The Cubs bullpen owns a 3.94 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP but is only 8/15 on save conversions.

The Nats pen owns a 6.77 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP, both of which rank dead last in the Majors, while also going 8/15 on save opportunities.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 22-21 in Cubs games this season.
  • Overs are 22-20 in Nationals games this season.
  • Overs are 12-9 in games played at Nationals Park this season.
  • Unders are 6-2 with Hendricks this season.
  • Overs are 5-1 with Hellickson this season.
  • The totals are split 1-1 in Cubs-Nats games this season.
  • Overs played 4-3 in Cubs-Nats games last season.

Free MLB Pick

Chicago owns advantages in the pitching match-up here, with the sticks and in the comparison of the bullpens. So we like the Cubs for Sunday night. And we also like taking chances so we’ll chase the better price and play Chicago giving the run and a half on the run line.

Take the Cubs on the runline -1.5 +120 at 5Dimes

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