Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals Pick 5/7/21

by | May 7, 2021 | mlb

Chicago White Sox (16-13) vs. Kansas City Royals (16-14)

When: 8:10 p.m., Friday, May 7

Where: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.

Moneyline: CHW -153/KC +143 (BAS - Favorites cost less and underdogs pay more here! Why bet on games at more expensive odds when you could be saving money! Doesn’t make any sense to pay more!)

Runline: White Sox -1.5/Royals +1.5

Total: 8.5

Starting Pitchers: Carlos Rodon (4-0, 0.72 ERA, 0.64 WHIP) vs. Brad Keller (2-3, 8.06 ERA, 2.15 WHIP)

Get It and Get Out

The White Sox might be struggling to meet their preseason expectations, but one area where they’re not struggling is jumping on their opponents early. Chicago is by far the strongest first-five innings team in base-ball, posting a record of 19-4-6 in the first half of the contest. The Royals rank third in money returned, and a bettor who’s taken Chicago to lead at the end of five would have returned more than double what he’d made in betting on Kansas City.

There are two big reasons for Chicago’s success in the early going: First, the White Sox are getting strong starting pitching across the board to open the season. Chicago ranks fifth in team ERA and leads baseball in complete games with three. Second, on most nights, the White Sox’s offense is good enough to undo any damage that an off-day from the bailiff. Chicago’s offense might be better than its pitching, and it’s actually done a great job of taking advantage of opportunities to rank third in the majors in run creation. Scoring a lot of runs is only one half of the equation for winning baseball (looking firmly in your direction, Colorado), but both of them together make for a formidable foe, which is why the White Sox in the first five has been base-ball’s best bet in 2021.

Lighting It Up

The last time Brad Keller took the mound in the City of Fountains was one that he’d like to forget. In that game, Keller ended up with as many earned runs as he did outs, recording just five outs as the Chiefs — oops, I mean Royals — dropped a 14-7 decision to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — wait, that’s the Rays. Leaving aside the offensive explosion that took place against the Rays, Keller has been the picture of inconsistency in 2021. On the one hand, he’s pitched relatively well against the Tigers and Angels, holding Detroit to two runs and Los Angeles to one.

On the other, the rest of his appearances have been a mess. His first start of the season saw Kansas City win despite Keller giving up nine hits and six runs while getting just four outs against Texas. The White Sox pounded him pretty easily on the South Side, and Keller’s most recent start was a 13-4 loss at Minnesota. That one does get an asterisk because five of the seven runs that Keller conceded were unearned, but the fact remains that when Keller is on the hill, good things have not been happening for Kansas City. The biggest issue is base runners, as Kansas City has allowed 41 runners in 18 innings of work against Keller. As long as the Royals keep allowing multiple base runners per inning, Keller’s going to have a hard time keeping runs off the board, especially against a team as opportunistic as the White Sox.

Missing Bats?

Whenever you get a strikeout pitcher like Rodon on the mound, it’s always a good idea to check the strikeout totals to see if there’s a play there. More often than not, you can actually do well taking the under because the general public flocks to someone who just put up a huge number. That could be the case again here be-cause Rodon is coming off a 12-strikeout showing in a seven-inning win against the Tigers. Twelve K’s out of 21 outs is an impressive total, but that was Detroit, which would probably lead the majors in strikeouts if the Tigers hadn’t played one game fewer than Tampa Bay.

Kansas City isn’t that kind of team. The Royals do have good plate discipline and have struck out just 244 times in 2021, which ranks fourth-lowest in MLB. If Rodon isn’t missing bats, it remains to be seen is whether he’ll be the same pitcher that he has been to this point in the season.

Betting Trends

  • The White Sox have won their past five games following a loss.
  • The White Sox are 22-9 in their past 31 games as a road favorite.
  • The Royals have lost five in a row.
  • The Royals have dropped four straight games at home.
  • The over is 4-0 in the White Sox’s past four as a road favorite.
  • The over is 7-1 in the Royals’ past eight games.
  • The White Sox have won seven meetings in a row in Kansas City.
  • The under is 4-0 in the teams’ past four matchups.

Weather Report

It’ll be a slight breeze in this one, as wind will blow south-southwest at a mere five miles per hour, which shouldn’t be enough to help baseballs leave the yard on a 63-degree day in the City of Fountains.

Dan’s pick

Have the Royals started to come back down to earth? Kansas City was the surprise leader of the AL Central up until Thursday when it blew the lead to Cleveland after losing four straight games to their rivals from Ohio. Prior to that series, Kansas City had been 8-5 in home games, but the Royals now have a losing record at Kauffman Stadium and are facing a Chicago team that’s going to hit its potential eventually. When it does, the White Sox are likely to waste no time taking advantage.

I’m not sure we’ve gotten ourselves to that point where the White Sox really show what they can do, but they are the better team and should be successful against a reeling Royals squad. Give me Chicago here. Bet your MLB picks for FREE this week by taking advantage of a special 100% REAL CASH bonus offer at MyBookie Sportsbook! Simply register using promo/bonus code PREDICT100 and deposit $100 to $300 and they’ll match you with the same amount! Click here to signup now!

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