Cincinnati Reds (30-33) Edinson Volquez -140, 9 O/U at Florida
Marlins (33-28) Mark Hendrickson +120, 9 O/U, Dolphin Stadium,
7:05 PM EST, Monday
by Badger of Predictem.com
The Cincinnati Reds have to like their chances in the finale of their four-game set with the Florida Marlins Monday night, as they send
their new ace of the staff Edinson Volquez to the mound.
Volquez will try and help the Reds salvage a split in the series, as the Marlins won back-to-back games over the weekend (8-7 Sat., 9-2
Sun.) after the Reds won the opener 11-3.
Florida will counter with tall and lanky lefty Mark Hendrickson, who has been knocked around hard to the tune of an 11.66 ERA and 25 hits
in 14.2 innings in his last three starts. Despite Hendricksons rocky
stretch, the Marlins have still won two of those three games and are
9-4 when the lefty toes the rubber for the Marlins.
Offshore sportsbooks opened the game with Volquez and the Reds as
-140 favorites on the moneyline, with Florida listed as +120
underdogs. The over/under total opened at 9.
Volquez has been simply filthy all season, leading the MLB in ERA (1.32), strikeouts (91) and opposing batting average (.188). Plus, he
has yet to allow more than two runs in any of his 12 starts, which is
the main reason the Reds are 10-2 in games with Volquez (8-2) on the
Hendrickson has had a hard time versus the Reds in his career, with
an 0-2 record with an 8.49 ERA in five career starts. One of those
starts was May 13th against Volquez, when he was touched for four
runs in five innings and ended with the loss when Volquez and the
Reds won the game, 5-3.
Volquez allowed one run on seven hits in six innings of that May 13th
game, mainly because he was able to keep Marlin shortstop Hanley
Ramirez in check. Ramirez was 0-for-3 in the first game, but is
currently one of the hottest Marlins in the lineup (8-for-21 with 5
HR and 8 RBI).
Cincinnati will be looking for Volquez to snap a two-game losing
streak, since the Reds suffered a walk-off loss on Saturday when
closer Francisco Cordero blew his third save of the season. The
offense went AWOL on Sunday, as rookie callup Jay Bruce (0-for-3),
clean-up hitter Brandon Phillips (0-for-4) and big lefty Adam Dunn (0-
for-2) all went hitless in the lopsided loss.
There are some interesting betting trends to note.
Florida has gone over the total in nine of their last 11 games as an
underdog on Monday. As a whole the Marlin offense has been a solid
over bet, going 21-6-3 in their last 30 games.
Cincinnati plays well as favorites, as they are 11-3 in their last 14 games as the chalk. They currently lead the season series with the
Marlins 4 games to 2, and are 7-2 versus the Marlins head-to-head in
the last nine in the series.
The Reds have long been losers on the road, as their 17-35 record in
their last 52 away from Ohio indicates. Theyve also had trouble in
Miami, going 3-9 at Dolphin Stadium since 2005. They are 3-8 in their
last 11 Monday games too.
Badgers Pick: With trends pointing in every direction, sometimes you just gotta go with your gut. My gut says that Volquez is the real
deal, so with a low -135 to -140 price tag Im riding that horse one
more time. Take the Reds.