Cincinnati Reds vs. Florida Marlins Preview and Pick

Cincinnati Reds (13-12) Edison Volquez +110, 8 O/U at Florida
Marlins (15-11) Chris Volstad -120, 8 O/U, Dolphins Stadium,
Miami, Florida, 7:10 PM EST, Tuesday

by Badger of

It has to be rare to get two starting pitchers with a last name that
begins with the letter V in the same game, but thats exactly what
will happen Tuesday night in Dolphins Stadium when the Cincinnati
Reds send Edison Volquez to the mound against the Florida Marlins
Chris Volstad.

Both teams will need their starters to pitch deep into the game as well, as both teams burned up almost every arm in their bullpen in
last nights 14-inning marathon eventually won by the Marlins, 3-2. A
walk by catcher Ronny Paulino to start the bottom of the 14th ended
up hurting the Reds, as he came around to score on a throwing error
at first on a potential double play grounder.

All told the Marlins used six pitchers and all 15 position players to
get the hard-fought victory, while the Reds burned through seven
different pitchers and all 15 position players in the hard to swallow
defeat. With so many players playing in a game that ended just short
of five hours long, it should be interesting to see which team
rebounds to take the conclusion of the short two-game series tonight.


Oddsmakers opened the game with Volstad and the Marlins as -120
favorites at home and the number has held despite the long game the
night before, although there are a few baseball bookies that list
the Marlins as -130 to -135 favorites. The Reds are +110 underdogs on
the dimeline, and the over/under total is listed at either 8 or 7.5
depending on where you wager on small ball.

Volstad is probably better equipped to handle the extra strain of
trying to go deep into the game, or at least his body of work this
season would lead you to believe that is true. For the year the young
righty is 2-0 with a solid 2.67 ERA, a microscopic 0.99 WHIP, and a .
258 opponents on-base percentage. He has been knocked around a
little bit in two of his last three starts (13 H, 6 BB, 8 R, 18.1
IP), but his last time out he was strong against the Cubs lasting
seven innings allowing just three hits and two runs in what turned
out to be an 8-2 Marlin win.

The Marlins are 4-1 in Volstads starts this season, and he has never
faced the Reds in his short career either.

The Reds need Volquez to pitch like he did in his last start, when he
was filthy against the Astros going eight innings allowing just one
hit and one walk and no runs in a 3-0 shutout victory. Volquez is 3-2
with a 4.45 ERA on the season, but he does tend to lose control at
times as his 1.41 WHIP and .336 opponents on-base percentage would

In his last three outings Volquez seems to have found his arm angle
and his touch, as he is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. Hes
also pitched well against the Fish in his two previous career starts
against them, going 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA. He has given up 10 hits and
seven walks in just 12 innings (a 1.417 WHIP), so both wins havent
exactly been pretty.

Neither team is lighting up the scoreboard on offense right now, as
the Marlins are in the top half of the league with an average of 4.92
runs per game (13th in MLB), while the Reds are near the bottom of
baseball with just a 3.88 runs per game average (27th). Both teams
hit just .241 as a team (tied for 27th), so there is a good chance
that either or both of the starters can last into the late innings.

So far this season the Reds are a solid 9-5 on the road including
last nights loss. They are also 9-3 in their last 12 games against
the Marlins head-to-head.

The Marlins are just 6-4 at home this season, but seven of their 10
games at Dolphins Stadium have gone over the total. In fact, prior to
last nights low-scoring affair, these two teams had gone over the
total in eight straight games played in Florida. The over is also 4-1
in Volstads five starts this season.

Badgers Pick: It seems like every pick Ive made lately has gone
opposite to what the conventional wisdom would dictate it should be.
This game looks like a strong pitchers duel on paper, but Im going
the other way and taking the over of 7.5 (or 8) since Volstad has looked shoddy lately.