Cleveland Indians at Houston Astros Pick 4/28/19

by | Apr 28, 2019 | mlb

Cleveland Indians (15-11) at Houston Astros (16-11), 4/28/19
Time: 7:05 pm ET
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Listed Pitchers: Carlos Carrasco (2-2, 6.00 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) vs. Wade Miley (1-2, 3.58, 1.08)
TV: ESPN

Moneyline: Indians +110 / Astros -120 (5Dimes)
Over/Under: 8.5

The Indians took two of the first three games of this four-game series with the Astros in Houston and seek the series victory Sunday night. The Tribe is also getting an underdog price. Who do we like for our free MLB pick in this spot?

MLB Betting Odds

Sunday’s MLB betting odds opened Houston and Miley at around -130 over Cleveland and Carrasco, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Early betting action then dropped that line about a dime, to around -120.

Indians vs. Astros Set-Up

Cleveland took the first two games of this series by scores of 2-1 and 6-3, cashing in as a dog of +145 Thursday against Gerrit Cole and at +110 Friday. But Houston hit the board with a 4-3 victory in 10 innings Saturday night.

The Astros took a 3-1 lead Saturday night with two runs in the bottom of the sixth inning, but the bullpen let the Indians tie it up with two runs in the top of the seventh. Houston then won it on a Tony Kemp pinch-hit home run in the bottom of the tenth.

Even with Saturday’s loss, Cleveland is 7-4 over its last 11 games. At 15-11 overall the Indians now trail first-place Minnesota by one game in the AL Central.

Even with Saturday’s win, Houston is only 3-5 over its last eight games. At 16-11 overall the Astros now trail first-place Seattle by a half-game in the AL West.

This series is the first meeting between these teams this season. Last year Houston took the regular-season series from Cleveland four games to three, then swept the Indians in three games in the divisional round of the American League playoffs.

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Sunday’s Starting Arms

Lefty Miley, by our stringent standards, is 2/5 on quality starts this season, doing his typical Wade Miley thing. Tuesday he gave up three runs and just three hits through six innings of a 10-4 Astros victory over the Twins, and just before that he held Oakland to two runs through six innings, although Houston lost that game 2-1.

On the season the Astros are 3-2 with Miley, and he actually probably deserves one win better.

Over his last three starts against Cleveland, one short outing last year with Milwaukee and two with Baltimore in 2017, Miley allowed eight runs and 15 hits through 11 innings. His teams lost two of those three games.

Carrasco is 1/5 on quality starts this season, running hot and cold. Through his first three starts, he allowed 14 runs through 10 innings. But over his last two starts, he’s thrown 11 innings of five-hit, shutout ball, with 16 strikeouts. Tuesday he tossed four scoreless innings against Miami, then left the game after taking a throw at first base off his knee.

Apparently, he’s OK to go Sunday.

On the season the Indians are 2-3 with Carrasco.

In three starts last year against the Astros, including one in the playoffs, Carrasco allowed 10 runs and 21 hits through 18 2/3 innings. Cleveland lost two of those three games.

Sunday’s Batting Splits

Cleveland is hitting just .224/.316/.312 against left-handed pitching this season.

Houston is batting .264/.343/.457 against RH pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Indians bullpen owns a 3.35 ERA this season, with a 1.27 WHIP and an 84/29 strikeouts/walks ratio.

The Astros bullpen owns a 3.18 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP and an 85/24 K/BB ratio.

Totals Report

  • The unders are 14-11-1 in Indians games this season.
  • The unders are 16-10-1 in Astros games this season.
  • The unders are 3-2 with Miley this season.
  • The unders are 2-0-1 in this series.
  • The unders are 6-5 in games played at Minute Maid Park this season.

Free Indians vs. Astros Pick

We’ll call this pitching match-up a push, but we give Houston the edge in the splits with the sticks and, despite nearly blowing Saturday’s game, in the comparison of the bullpens. So we’re going with the Astros, the home team at a short price, for our free MLB pick for Sunday.

Take the Houston Astros -120