Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins Predictions

by | Jul 30, 2020 | mlb

Cleveland Indians (4-2) at Minnesota Twins (4-1), 7/30/20

Listed Pitchers: Jose Berrios (0-0, 11.25) vs. Shane Bieber (1-0, 0.00)

Time: 7:07 pm ET Thursday, July 30

Where: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN

TV: Fox

Moneyline: Indians -110/Twins +100 (Bovada - Credit cards work for deposits + 50% Bonus!)

Over/Under: 8.5

Every series is big this season, but the Indians and Twins begin a really big four-game AL Central series in Minneapolis Thursday night. These two teams have combined to win the AL Central the last three seasons, and one of them will probably win it this season, too. How are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Thursday’s MLB betting odds opened this game at right around a pick ’em, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Both those figures were holding steady in early betting action.

Indians vs. Twins Set-Up

Cleveland just took two of three games at home from the White Sox, missing out on the sweep by losing Wednesday’s series finale 4-0. That game was tied at 0-0 into the ninth inning when Chicago pushed across four runs off the Indians bullpen. Cleveland then loaded the bases with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, but Domingo Santana grounded out to end the game.

The Indians opened their season by taking two of three games at home from Kansas City last weekend.

Meanwhile, Minnesota swept a two-game series at home from St. Louis, winning Wednesday 3-0. The Twins got five shutout innings from 40-year-old newcomer Rich Hill, a homer from Eddie Rosario, and four blank frames from the bullpen to secure the victory.

Minnesota opened this season by taking two of three games from the White Sox in Chicago.

Last year Cleveland took the season series from the Twins 10 games to nine.

On the personnel front, the Indians are playing without C Roberto Perez (24 home runs, Gold Glove last year), who was placed on the IL Wednesday with a sore shoulder.

Thursday’s Starting Arms

Berrios is 0/1 on quality starts this season. Last Friday he gave up five runs and seven hits through four innings against the White Sox, although the Twins won that game anyway 10-5.

Last year Berrios hit 21/32 on quality starts while posting a 1.22 WHIP and a 149/53 K/BB ratio. Minnesota played 19-13 in Berrios’ starts last season.

In four starts against Cleveland last year, Berrios allowed seven earned runs and 16 hits through 24 2/3 innings, with six walks and 26 whiffs. The Twins only split those four games.

Bieber is 1/1 on quality starts this season. Last Thursday, he overpowered Kansas City, allowing no runs and four hits through six innings, with 14 strikeouts against one walk in a 2-0 Indians victory.

Last year Bieber hit 24/33 on quality starts, with a 1.05 WHIP and a 153/64 K/BB ratio. Cleveland played 20-13 for Bieber previous season.

Over four starts and one relief appearance against Minnesota last year, Bieber allowed 12 ER and 30 hits through 28 innings, with five walks and 33 strikeouts. The Indians won all four of his starts vs. the Twins.

Thursday’s Batting Splits

Cleveland batted .247 against right-handed pitching last season, with a .319 team OBP and a .426 team slugging percentage. So far this season, the Indians have been held to two runs or less three times through their first six games.

Minnesota batted 264/.333/.484 vs. RH pitching last year. So far this year, the Twins have scored at least six runs three times in five games.

The Bullpens

The Cleveland bullpen has allowed seven runs and 11 hits through 16 innings of work this season.

The Twins bullpen has allowed ten runs and 19 hits through 21 innings this season, but nine of those runs came in one bad outing against the White Sox last weekend.

MLB Betting Trends

  • Cleveland played 44-37 on the road last year.
  • Minnesota played 46-35 at home last year.
  • Cleveland played 60-47 vs. right-handed starters last year.
  • Minnesota played 79-44 vs. RH starters last year, second-best in the Majors.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 5-1 in Indians games this season.
  • Overs are 3-2 in Twins games this season.
  • Unders played 39-38 in games played at Target Field last season.
  • Overs played 16-13 in Berrios’ starts last year.
  • Unders played 23-10 in Bieber’s starts last year.

Free MLB Pick

Bieber was fantastic in his season debut last week, but he’ll be hard-pressed to repeat a performance like that Thursday. Meanwhile, Berrios struggled a bit in his season debut, but we expect better this time out. Also, Minnesota is scoring runs in bunches while Cleveland is scuffling at the plate. We’re taking the Twins for our free MLB pick for Thursday. Bet your MLB picks for FREE this week by taking advantage of a massive 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook!