Cubs vs. Dodgers Analysis & Runline Pick

by | Last updated Jul 10, 2022 | mlb

Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Date: Sunday, July 10th, 04:10 ET
Location: Dodger Stadium
TV: Marquee Sports Network
Money Line: Cubs +218 / Dodgers -243
Total Line: 8.5un -117
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Chicago: Drew Smyly (2-5, 3.8)
Los Angeles: Julio Urías (7-6, 2.57)

Cubs Projected Lineup

Yan Gomes C
Nelson Velazquez CF
Nico Hoerner SS
Patrick Wisdom 3B
Seiya Suzuki RF
David Bote 2B
Ian Happ LF
Christopher Morel 2B
Willson Contreras C
Drew Smyly P

Dodgers Projected Lineup

Cody Bellinger CF
Jake Lamb 1B
Max Muncy 3B
Justin Turner 3B
Mookie Betts RF
Gavin Lux LF
Will Smith C
Freddie Freeman 1B
Trea Turner SS
Julio Urías P


Chicago Cubs: 34-51-0 SU / OU 40-41-4 / Run Line W/L 43-42-0
Los Angeles Dodgers: 55-29-0 SU / OU 31-45-8 / Run Line W/L 49-35-0

The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Chicago Cubs on Sunday, July 10th at Dodger Stadium. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 04:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Los Angeles as the favorite (-243), with an OU line set at 8.5 runs.

Recent Form

In Chicago’s last game, they fell to the Dodgers by a score of 4-2. In the loss, Chicago’s pitchers gave up 4 runs on 9 hits. Offensively, they finished with just 2 runs on 5 hits. Chicago’s loss came as the underdog, getting 210.0 on the moneyline. Together, the Cubs and Dodgers stayed below the over-under line set at 7.5 runs. With this result, Chicago’s over-under record dropped even further, moving to just 40-41-4.

After their 5 most recent games, the Cubs have gone just 2-3. Even with this record, their scoring differential during this time is +1. A key reason for Chicago’s recent struggles is an offense averaging just 3.6 runs per game over their last 5 contests, compared to a season average of 4.32. Chicago’s overall series record is just 9-13-5.

In their last game, Los Angeles took down the Cubs by a score of 4-2. For the game, the pitching staff held the Cubs to 2 runs on 5 hits. The Dodgers offense ended the game with just 4 runs on 9 hits. Heading into action, Los Angeles was the favorite at -240.0. So far, the team has won 66.0% of the games in which they were favored. With this result, the Dodgers and Cubs combined to fall below the over-under line of 7.5 runs. This result comes as no surprise, as the team’s over-under record is just 31-45-8.

Over their last 5 games, the Dodgers have not lost a game, going 5-0. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +9. Los Angeles is still playing winning baseball, even with their offense averaging just 4.0 runs per game, compared to a season-long mark of 4.98. On the season, Los Angeles has won more than half of their series, going 18-8-1.

Pitching Matchup

Drew Smyly gets the start for the Cubs, with an overall record of 2-5. To date, Smyly has an ERA of 3.8 while lasting an average of 4.69 innings per appearance. Compared to other starters, the left-hander has a high BA allowed, currently sitting at 0.26. Home runs have been an issue for Smyly, as he is allowing an average of 1.71 per 9 innings pitched. Smyly is in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts, averaging just 3.78 K’s per game. This includes a strikeout percentage of 19.0%. Throughout the season, Smyly has avoided walking batters, allowing just 2.11 per contest.

Los Angeles will roll with Julio Urías (7-6) as their starter. Heading into the game, Urías has appeared in 16 contests, posting an ERA of just 2.57. On average, he pitches 5.45 innings per appearance. Overall, opponents have a batting average of just 0.214 against the right-hander. This year, home runs have been an issue for Urías. So far, he has allowed 1.34 per 9 innings. On the season, Julio Urías has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 24.0%. This has led to an average of 5.19 K’s per game. Urías comes into the game hoping to improve his walk numbers, as he is averaging 2.16 free passes per outing.

Chicago vs Los Angeles History

For the season, the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers will be playing their 7th game of the season. Los Angeles holds the edge in the series at 6-0. Through 6 games, the series’ over-under record is 2-2, with the average run total sitting at 7.29 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 3.67 runs. Last season, Chicago picked up the series win, 4 games to 3. In these 7 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 3-3. Last year, the Cubs and Dodgers averaged 7.29 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.29 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  1. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chi Cubs’s last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
  2. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi Cubs’s last 7 games
  3. LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs
  4. LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Heading into Sunday’s National League matchup between Chicago and Los Angeles, look for the Dodgers to come away with a multiple run win. Los Angeles starter Julio Urias has notched 4 straight wins while lowering his WHIP to just 1.03. On the other side, Chicago has won 2 just games with Drew Smyly as their starter. I like the Dodgers on the runline.

Free MLB Pick: Dodgers -1.5 Runline


Will Rodgers Sports HandicapperI won my last two MLB playoff picks and am going for three straight on Friday in Game 1 of the World Series! I had a sparkling run down the stretch (in the regular season), and look to finish in the same fashion in the postseason. Hop on board now!