Cubs vs. Phillies Money Bet 7/24/22

by | Last updated Jul 24, 2022 | mlb

Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies
Date: Sunday, July 24th, 12:05 ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park
TV: Peacock
Money Line: Cubs +120 / Phillies -143 (Bovada)
Total Line: 9.5


Chicago: Drew Smyly (2-5, 4.22)
Philadelphia: Bailey Falter (0-2, 4.82)

Cubs Projected Lineup

Frank Schwindel 1B
Yan Gomes C
Nico Hoerner SS
Patrick Wisdom 3B
Seiya Suzuki RF
Christopher Morel 2B
Ian Happ LF
Rafael Ortega CF
Willson Contreras C
Drew Smyly P

Phillies Projected Lineup

Matt Vierling CF
Johan Camargo 1B
Alec Bohm 3B
Didi Gregorius SS
Nick Castellanos RF
Darick Hall 1B
J.T. Realmuto C
Kyle Schwarber LF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Bailey Falter P


Chicago Cubs: 37-57-0 SU / OU 44-44-6 / Run Line W/L 48-46-0
Philadelphia Phillies: 49-45-0 SU / OU 49-43-2 / Run Line W/L 49-45-0

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Chicago Cubs on Sunday, July 24th at Citizens Bank Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 12:05 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Philadelphia as the favorite (-143), with an OU line set at 9.5.

Recent Form

The Chicago Cubs are coming off a 4-run win over the Phillies by a score of 6-2. On their way to the victory, the pitching staff gave up 2 runs on 6 hits. The Cubs benefited from an offense that generated 6 runs on 7 hits. Chicago picked up the win, despite getting 159.0 on the moneyline. When looking at the over-under result, the Cubs and Phillies matched the line set at 8.0 runs. Chicago yet again has an even record against the over-under line, going 44-44-6.

The Cubs are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 3-2 over their last 5 games. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +16. Their hot play has been driven by an offense that typically averages 4.33 runs per game. But, over this stretch, this figure has bumped up to 5.6. Chicago’s overall series record is just 10-15-5.

Philadelphia is coming off a 4 run loss to the Cubs. Dropping the game 6-2. Philadelphia’s pitching staff gave up 7 hits, leading to 6 runs for the Cubs. With their 6 hits, the Phillies could only plate 2 runners. Philadelphia dropped the game despite being favored at -174.0. So far, the team has won 55% of the games in which they were favored. Combined, the Phillies and the Cubs matched the over-under total of 8.0. On the season, Philadelphia’s overall over-under record sits at 49-43-2.

Across their last 5 contests, the Phillies are above .500, going 3-2. Philadelphia has managed to play above .500 baseball, despite their last 5 scoring margin sitting at -2. Philadelphia is still playing winning baseball, even with their offense averaging just 4.0 runs per game, compared to a season-long mark of 4.63. Philadelphia has a below .500 series record of just 13-15-2.

Pitching Matchup

Drew Smyly gets the start for the Cubs, with an overall record of 2-5. So far, Smyly has put together an ERA of 4.22. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.45 innings. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.273. Opponents are hitting for power against Smyly, as his HR/9 figure sits at 1.65. Smyly is in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts, averaging just 3.55 K’s per game. This includes a strikeout percentage of 18.0%. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 2.2 walks per contest.

Bailey Falter gets the start for the Phillies, with an overall record of 0-2. To date, Falter has an ERA of 4.82 while lasting an average of 3.11 innings per appearance. Compared to other starters, the right-hander has a high BA allowed of 0.297. Home runs have been an issue for Falter, as he is allowing an average of 1.93 per 9 innings pitched. Up to this point, Falter has a strikeout percentage of just 19.0% and a per game average of 2.67. Throughout the season, Falter has avoided walking batters, allowing just 2.57 per contest.

Chicago vs Philadelphia History

For the season, the Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies will be playing their 3rd game of the season. Chicago has the lead in the series at 2-0. The over-under record in this series sits at 2-0. The average run total in these games is 15.0 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 8.5 runs. Dating back to last season, Philadelphia picked up 5 wins compared to 2, taking the season series. In these 7 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 6-1. Last year, the Cubs and Phillies averaged 15.0 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 5.86 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • Chi Cubs is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 9 of Chi Cubs’s last 11 games when playing Philadelphia
  • The total has gone OVER in 9 of Philadelphia’s last 11 games when playing Chi Cubs
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 7 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs

Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Heading into Sunday’s game between Chicago and Philadelphia, the Phillies are the betting favorite on the moneyline. Even though Bailey Falter hasn’t worked deep into games, Philadelphia has still been picking up wins with him on the mound. On the other side, Chicago has lost 3 straight games with Drew Smyly as the starter. I like Philadelphia on the moneyline.

Free MLB Pick: Phillies Moneyline

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