Cubs vs. Reds Odds & Free Picks 8/11/22

by | Last updated Aug 11, 2022 | mlb

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds
Date: Thursday August 11th, 07:15 ET
Location: Field Of Dreams
Money Line: Cubs -110 / Reds -110
Total Line: 8.5
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Chicago: Drew Smyly (4-6, 3.97) Cincinnati: Nick Lodolo (3-3, 4.4)

Cubs Projected Lineup

Franmil Reyes RF Nick Madrigal 2B Patrick Wisdom 1B Nico Hoerner SS Seiya Suzuki RF Christopher Morel 2B Nelson Velazquez CF Willson Contreras C Ian Happ LF Drew Smyly P

Reds Projected Lineup

Albert Almora Jr. CF Jose Barrero SS Donovan Solano 2B Aristides Aquino RF Kyle Farmer SS Austin Romine C Joey Votto 1B Jonathan India 2B Nick Senzel CF Nick Lodolo P


Chicago Cubs: 44-65-0 SU / OU 48-56-6 / Run Line W/L 56-54-0 Cincinnati Reds: 44-65-0 SU / OU 56-53-1 / Run Line W/L 52-58-0

The Cincinnati Reds host the Chicago Cubs on Thursday August 11th at Great American Ball Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:15 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Cincinnati as the favorite (-110), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

In their most recent game, Chicago picked up a 2 run win over the Nationals (4-2). Overall, the team’s pitching staff limited the Nationals to 2 runs on 9 hits. The Cubs lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 9 hits, leading to 4 runs. Heading into their last game, Chicago was the betting favorite at -160.0. Through 38 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 47.0%. Together, the Cubs and Nationals stayed below the over-under line set at 7.5 runs. This outcome pushed Chicago’s over-under record further below .500 at 48-56-6.

In the Cubs’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 3-2. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at +5. Chicago’s offense heads into action averaging 3.8 runs per game in their last 5 contests. Similar to their season average of 4.13. Chicago’s overall series record is just 13-17-5.

Cincinnati will be looking to move on from a tough loss to the Mets by the score of 10-2. Cincinnati’s pitching staff gave up 13 hits, leading to 10 runs for the Mets. With their 6 hits, the Reds could only plate 2 runners. Leading into Cincinnati’s loss, they were the underdogs, getting 260.0 on the Moneyline. In their 83 games as the underdog, their straight-up win percentage sits at 39.0%. The Reds and Mets went over the run total line set at 9.0 runs. For the season, the team’s over-under record is 56-53-1.

The Reds come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. During this time, the team has a run differential of -12. If Cincinnati is going to pick up their play, they need to improve their offensive performance. Over their last 5 contests, they are averaging just 3.2 runs per game, compared to a season average of 4.24. Cincinnati has a below .500 series record of just 11-17-7.


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Pitching Matchup

Drew Smyly gets the start for the Cubs, with an overall record of 4-6. So far, Smyly has put together an ERA of 3.97. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.66 innings. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.266. Home runs have been an issue for Smyly, as he is allowing an average of 1.52 per 9 innings pitched. This season, he has struck out 19.0 of the batters he has faced. This has led to a per game average of 3.71. Throughout the season, Smyly has avoided walking batters, allowing just 2.06 per contest.

The Cincinnati Reds will send Nick Lodolo to the mound with an overall record of 3-3. Lodolo gets the start with an ERA of 4.4. On average, he has lasted 4.78 innings per appearance. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, with a batting average of 0.279. Opposing hitters are hitting home runs at an above-average rate against Lodolo. This year, he is allowing 1.47 HR’s per 9 innings pitched. On the season, Nick Lodolo has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 28.9%. This has led to an average of 6.44 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 4.19 walks per outing.

Chicago vs Cincinnati History

For the season, the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds will be playing their 8th game of the season. So far, Chicago is leading the season series, 4-3. The over-under record in this series sits at 5-2. The average run total in these games is 8.84 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 5.86 runs. Cincinnati won last year’s head to head series, grabbing 11 wins to 8. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 7-11, with the average run total being 8.84 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 2.84 runs per contest.

Betting Trends

  • Chi Cubs is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Chi Cubs is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
  • Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Heading into Thursday’s Field of Dreams matchup between Chicago and Cincinnati, the oddsmakers have this as a pick’em. The last time Drew Smyly faced the Reds, he went just under 6 innings while giving up 3 runs. However, I expect the Cubs to struggle against Nick Lodolo, as the team is ranked 24th in batting average vs left-handed pitching. I like the Reds on the Moneyline.

Free MLB Pick: Reds Moneyline

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