Dave’s Best Bet: Giants vs. Padres

by | Jul 9, 2022 | mlb

San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres
Date: Saturday, July 9th, 07:15 ET
Location: Petco Park
TV: FOX
Money Line: Giants -110 / Padres -110 (Bovada >>>)
Total Line: 6.5ov -120

STARTING PITCHING

San Francisco: Carlos Rodón (7-5, 2.87)
San Diego: Yu Darvish (7-4, 3.53)

Giants Projected Lineup

Darin Ruf LF
Tommy La Stella 2B
Brandon Belt 1B
Brandon Crawford SS
LaMonte Wade Jr RF
Wilmer Flores 2B
Austin Wynns C
Joc Pederson LF
Mike Yastrzemski CF
Carlos Rodón P

Padres Projected Lineup

Ha-seong Kim SS
Trent Grisham CF
Jorge Alfaro C
Nomar Mazara LF
Manny Machado 3B
Jose Azocar RF
Luke Voit 1B
Eric Hosmer 1B
Jake Cronenworth 1B
Yu Darvish P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

San Francisco Giants: 41-40-0 SU / OU 40-37-5 / Run Line W/L 39-43-0
San Diego Padres: 48-36-0 SU / OU 38-45-2 / Run Line W/L 43-42-0

The San Diego Padres host the San Francisco Giants on Saturday, July 9th at Petco Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:15 ET. The MLB Odds Board has this game at pick’em, with an OU line set at 6.5.

Recent Form

The Giants are hoping to get back on track after falling to the Padres by a score of 2-1. Even in the loss, the pitching staff gave up just 2 runs while allowing 9 hits. The Giants ended the game with just 3 runs on 5 hits. The loss came as San Francisco was the betting underdog, getting 125.0 on the moneyline. With the over-under line set at 7.0 runs, the Giants and Padres combined to go over this total. So far, San Francisco has an above .500 over-under record of 40-37-5.

Over the Giants’ last 5 contests, they have a record of just 1-4. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -17. San Francisco’s offense is in the middle of a cold streak, as their offensive production has dipped to just 3.4 runs per game over their last 5 contests. San Francisco’s overall series record is just 12-12-4.

In their last game, San Diego took down the Giants by a score of 2-1. In the win, the pitching staff allowed just 1 run on 5 hits. Offensively, they finished with 6 runs on 9 hits. San Diego picked up the win while being favored at -145.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 58 games, winning at a rate of 59.0%. The Padres and Giants went over the run total line set at 7.0 runs. So far, San Diego has an over-under record of just 38-45-2.

The Padres come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. During this time, the team has a run differential of -12. The team’s offense is partly to blame for their recent slump, as they have averaged just 2.4 runs over their last 5 game. On the season, San Diego has won more than half of their series, going 14-9-4.

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Pitching Matchup

San Francisco will roll with Carlos Rodón (7-5) as their starter. Through 16 appearances, Rodón has an ERA of just 2.87 while averaging 5.69 innings per appearance. So far, batters are hitting just 0.213 against him. In addition, to his strong BA allowed, he has been able to limit power, allowing just 0.4 home runs allowed per 9 innings. On the season, Carlos Rodón has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 30.0%. This includes a per game average of 7.0 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.97 walks per outing.

The San Diego Padres will send Yu Darvish to the mound with an overall record of 7-4. So far, Darvish has put together an ERA of 3.53. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 6.27 innings. Darvish will take the mound with a BA allowed of 0.221. Per 9 innings pitched, Darvish is giving up 0.86 home runs. In terms of strikeouts, Yu Darvish has a strong K% of 22.0%, including a per game average of 5.67. Throughout the season, Darvish has avoided walking batters, allowing just 1.72 per contest.

San Francisco vs San Diego History

For the season, the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres will be playing their 9th game of the season. Currently, San Diego is winning the season series 6-2. The over-under record in this series sits at 4-4. The average run total in these games is 8.84 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 3.62 runs. Going back to last year, San Francisco won the season series, 11 games to 8. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 12-7, with the average run total being 8.84 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.47 runs per game.

Betting Trends

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco’s last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego
  • San Francisco is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego’s last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
  • San Diego is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco

San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres Prediction

Heading into Saturday’s NL West matchup between San Francisco and San Diego, runs could be hard to come by with Carlos Rodon and Yu Darvish on the mound. Between the offenses, I see San Diego rising to the occasion. I like the Padres on the moneyline.

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