Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox Preview and Pick – Jeremy Bonderman vs. Jon Lester

Detroit Tigers (0-7) +115, o/u 9 1/2 at Boston Red Sox (4-4), 7 pm Eastern Wednesday
by Zman of

The Detroit Tigers, the last win-less team in the majors this year, go in search of that elusive initial victory when they take on the Boston Red Sox in the middle game of a three-game series Wednesday night at Fenway Park.

The Sportsbooks Boston as -125 home chalk for Wednesday’s game, with an over/under of 9 1/2.

The Red Sox took game one of this series by a 5-0 score Tuesday night. The loss dropped Detroit to 0-7 on the season, and now five games behind the first-place Kansas City Royals – yes, you read that right – in the American League’s Central Division. And by failing to score, the Tigers have now tallied a grand total of 15 runs so far this season.

Meanwhile, the defending World Series champions are now in third place in the AL East, 2 1/2 games behind the first-place Baltimore Orioles – and yes, you read that right, too.

Last year, Detroit went 43-38 on the road, while Boston went 51-30 at Fenway Park.

Also last season, the Tigers took the season series with the Red Sox four games to three. The o/u went 2-5 in those seven games, which averaged just 7.6 runs per.

Jeremy Bonderman is slated to take the hill for the Tigers Wednesday night against lefty Jon Lester for the Sox.

In his first start of this new season, Bonderman allowed four runs and eight hits in 6 1/3 innings of work in a 4-1 loss to KC last Thursday. Last year, Bonderman started once vs. Boston, holding the Red Sox to two ER and 10 baserunners (hits + walks) in eight IP. The Tigers won that game by a score of 3-2.

In fact, Detroit has won Bonderman’s last five starts vs. the Sox, going back to 2005.

In his most recent outing, Lester held Oakland scoreless over 6 2/3 innings in a 5-0 Boston win last Wednesday.

The Tigers, thought to be one of the most potent offensive teams in the league, own just a .308 team OBP so far this season, which ranks 23rd in the majors, and are averaging 2.1 runs per game.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox own a .327 team OBP, which ranks 16th, and are averaging 3.5 RPG.

The Detroit bullpen, which is down a couple of key arms in Rodney and Zumaya, has allowed 10 ER and 30 baserunners over its last 17 1/3 innings of work.

The Boston pen hasn’t been that great recently, either, giving up 10 ER and 18 baserunners in its last 13 IP.

The o/u is 3-4 in Tigers games this season, which are averaging 8.4 total runs, while the totals are 3-4-1 in Red Sox games, which are averaging 7.8 total runs.

Games played at Fenway Park last year averaged 10.2 total runs.

Zman’s Pick: I like Under 10 runs tonight.