Diamondbacks vs. Giants Pick 9/30/21

by | Sep 30, 2021 | mlb

Arizona Diamondbacks (50-108) vs. San Francisco Giants (104-54)

When: 9:45 p.m., Thursday, September 30

Where: Oracle Park, San Francisco

Moneyline: ARI +170/SF -190 (BetOnline - AWESOME LIVE BETTING!)

Runline: Diamondbacks +1.5/Giants -1.5

Total: 8.5

Starting Pitchers: Madison Bumgarner (7-10, 4.58 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) vs. Scott Kazmir (0-1, 4.09 ERA, 1.45 WHIP)

Blast From the Past

Both teams have reached into the past for this contest, as the Diamondbacks will be sending San Francisco’s former ace to the hill to try to stop the Giants from clinching at least a tie for the NL West before the final weekend. The Giants simply need two wins and a Dodger loss to become the division winners, and a win here coupled with an L.A. loss would send San Francisco into the final series, only needing to avoid the sweep to win its first division title since 2012.

Standing in the way is perhaps the man who was the most important part of their 2012 and 2014 World Series titles. Bumgarner has been the one decent option Arizona has had at its disposal, as the Diamondbacks have mainly been a disaster as far as run prevention. Bumgarner hasn’t had a fantastic season by any means, but he has battled well and managed to get the win in seven of his team’s 50 victories, a full one-seventh. The rest of the Diamondbacks might not be much to look at, but Bumgarner on the mound means this is no gimme for the Giants.

Getting It Done

Of course, Scott Kazmir is even more of a blast from the past, as he hadn’t been on a roster in multiple seasons, and his best days are thought to be long behind him. However, Kazmir showed last time out that he still has a bit left in his arm, holding San Diego to just one unearned run in four innings of work.

Kazmir isn’t going to overwhelm anyone at this point in his career, but he also doesn’t have to. All he has to do is make sure that he’s keeping his team in the game for four or five innings so that the bullpen and bats can take over. That’s been an effective strategy for San Francisco all season, and as long as Kazmir executes it again, the Giants should have a good shot at a win.

Cutting Off the Head

When you’re dealing with a snake, you’ve got to make sure that you go for the head, and that’s exactly what San Francisco has done all year against the Diamondbacks. Granted, a lot of teams have had a lot of success against Arizona (hence why the Diamondbacks are sitting at 50-108, but the Giants have really made a living off beating up on Arizona, winning 16 out of 18 games against the Diamondbacks.

Even more important, they haven’t let easy wins get away at home. The Giants are a perfect 8-0 against the Diamondbacks at Oracle Park this season, although betting on the run line isn’t necessarily recommended here. Of their past four wins at home, two of them have been by just one run, leaving room to back Arizona on the runline. Plus, the opposing pitcher being Bumgarner, is a reason to pause on being too aggressive. Not only is Bumgarner the one solid pitcher the Diamondbacks have, but he’s one of only two Arizona hurlers who actually has a win against the Giants in 2021, having beaten San Francisco 3-1 in Arizona’s most recent win over the Giants.

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Betting Trends

  • The Diamondbacks are 11-52 in their past 63 road games.
  • The Diamondbacks are 14-45 in their past 59 against the NL West.
  • The Giants are 4-1 in their past five home games.
  • The Giants are 40-15 in their past 55 games overall.
  • The over is 4-0-2 in the Diamondbacks’ past six Thursday games.
  • The over is 16-7-1 in the Diamondbacks’ past 24 games overall.
  • The under is 4-1 in the Giants’ past five games on grass.
  • The under is 7-3 in the Giants’ past ten games as a home favorite.
  • The Diamondbacks are 5-16 in their past 21 trips to San Francisco.
  • The over is 6-1 in the teams’ past seven meetings in San Francisco

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Weather Report

It’s going to be a very pleasant evening in San Francisco, with temperatures sitting at 68 degrees and clear skies. Wind will blow toward right-center at seven miles per hour.

Dan’s Pick

The Giants have dominated the Diamondbacks all season long and should have too much for Arizona in this one. Bumgarner might keep the score close, but there shouldn’t be much doubt about which way the game will go.

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