Diamondbacks vs. Padres Analysis & Predictions

by | Sep 5, 2022 | mlb

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres

Date: Monday September 5th, 06:40 ET

Location: Petco Park

TV: Bally Sports San Diego

Money Line: Diamondbacks +185 / Padres -225 (BOL - Check out their 500K NFL Handicapping Contest and HUGE Survivor Pool!

Total Line: 8.0

STARTING PITCHING

Arizona: Ryne Nelson MLB Debut
San Diego: Blake Snell (6-7, 3.97)

Diamondbacks Projected Lineup

Emmanuel Rivera 3B
Jake McCarthy LF
Corbin Carroll LF
Daulton Varsho RF
Josh Rojas 2B
Geraldo Perdomo SS
Carson Kelly C
Ketel Marte 2B
Christian Walker 1B
Ryne Nelson P

Padres Projected Lineup

Jake Cronenworth 2B
Jurickson Profar LF
Brandon Drury 1B
Juan Soto RF
Wil Myers 1B
Manny Machado 3B
Austin Nola C
Josh Bell 1B
Ha-seong Kim SS
Blake Snell P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Arizona Diamondbacks: 64-69-0 SU / OU 62-67-4 / Run Line W/L 78-55-0
San Diego Padres: 74-61-0 SU / OU 62-68-5 / Run Line W/L 59-76-0

The San Diego Padres host the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday September 5th at Petco Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 06:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places San Diego as the favorite (-225), with an OU line set at 8.0.

Recent Form

The Arizona Diamondbacks will look to pick up another big win after they defeated Milwaukee by a score of 5-1. Overall, the team’s pitching staff limited Milwaukee to 1 run on 3 hits. The Diamondbacks benefited from an offense that generated 5 runs on 8 hits. In the matchup, Arizona was favored at -160.0 on the moneyline. Through 43 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 57.9%. Combined, the Diamondbacks and Milwaukee fell short of the over-under betting line of 8.0 runs. With this result, Arizona’s over-under record dropped even further, moving to just 62-67-4.

The Diamondbacks are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 3-2 over their last 5 games. However, even with an above .500 record their run differential sits at just -8 (last 5). In their last 5 contests, Arizona is averaging 4.0 runs per game, right in line with their season average of 4.44. Arizona’s overall series record is just 17-18-7.

San Diego will be looking to move on from a tough loss to the Dodgers by the score of 9-4. On their way to giving up 9 runs, the Padres staff allowed 9 hits. With their 8 hits, the Padres could only plate 4 runners. Leading into San Diego’s loss, they were the underdogs, getting 135.0 on the moneyline. So far, the team has gone into 36 games as the underdog, still finding the win column at a rate of 50.0%. The Padres and Dodgers went over the run total line set at 9.5 runs. Against the run total, San Diego is just 62-68-5.

In their last 5 games, the Padres have put together a record of 3-2. San Diego has managed to play above .500 baseball, despite their last 5-scoring margin sitting at -8. San Diego has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 4.2 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 4.42. On the season, San Diego has won more than half of their series, going 21-15-6.

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Pitching Matchup

The Arizona Diamondbacks will give the starting nod to Ryne Nelson, who is making his MLB debut. This year in the minors, he has an impressive record at 10-5, but his ERA sits at 5.43. Overall, he pitched 136 innings this year, notching 128 strikeouts.

The San Diego Padres will send Blake Snell to the mound with an overall record of 6-7. To date, Snell has an ERA of 3.97 while lasting an average of 5.17 innings per appearance. Snell comes into the game with a batting average allowed of 0.236. Throughout the season, Snell has done a good job at limiting home runs, allowing 0.87 per 9 innings. Per game, Blake Snell is averaging 6.89, on a strikeout percentage of 31.0%. Command has been a problem for Snell, as he is giving up 3.97 walks per outing.

Arizona vs San Diego History

Today’s matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres will be their 13th meeting of the season. San Diego holds the edge in the series at 9-3. The over-under record in this series sits at 4-8. The average run total in these games is 9.21 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 2.75 runs. Dating back to last season, the San Diego picked up 11 wins compared to 8, taking the season series. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 10-8, with the average run total being 9.21 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 4.37 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last 10 overall.
  • Padres are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres Prediction

Leading into Monday’s NL West matchup between Arizona and San Diego, the Padres are the strong favorite on the moneyline. Even though its possible for a pitcher making his MLB debut to catch lightning in a bottle, I don’t foresee that happening today. Look for the Padres to get to to Ryne Nelson early. The best bet for this matchup is to take the Padres to cover the runline.

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