Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Analysis, Predictions

by | Sep 7, 2022 | mlb

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres

Date: Wednesday September 7th, 08:40 ET

Location: Petco Park

TV: Bally Sports San Diego

Money Line: Diamondbacks +168 / Padres -206 (BAS - Favorites cost less and underdogs pay more here due to their reduced juice offerings!)

Total Line: 8.0

STARTING PITCHING

Arizona: Tommy Henry (3-3, 4.83)
San Diego: Yu Darvish (12-7, 3.26)

Diamondbacks Projected Lineup

Carson Kelly C
Alek Thomas CF
Daulton Varsho RF
Corbin Carroll OF
Josh Rojas 3B
Geraldo Perdomo SS
Ketel Marte 2B
Christian Walker 1B
Jake McCarthy LF
Tommy Henry P

Padres Projected Lineup

Wil Myers 1B
Trent Grisham CF
Jurickson Profar LF
Juan Soto RF
Jake Cronenworth 2B
Manny Machado 3B
Jorge Alfaro C
Josh Bell 1B
Ha-seong Kim SS
Yu Darvish P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Arizona Diamondbacks: 65-70-0 SU / OU 63-68-4 / Run Line W/L 80-55-0
San Diego Padres: 75-62-0 SU / OU 63-69-5 / Run Line W/L 59-78-0

The San Diego Padres host the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday September 7th at Petco Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 08:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places San Diego as the favorite (-206), with an OU line set at 8.0.

Recent Form

In their last game, the Diamondbacks suffered a 1 run loss to San Diego by a score of 6-5. In the loss, Arizona’s pitchers gave up 6 runs on 6 hits. On offense, the Diamondbacks’ 10 hits and 5 runs ended up not being enough to pull out the win. Arizona’s loss came as the underdog, getting 140.0 on the moneyline. With the over-under line set at 7.0 runs, the Diamondbacks and San Diego combined to go over this total. Even with this game going over the total, Arizona still has an over-under record of just 63-68-4.

The Diamondbacks come into this game with a 3-2 record over their last 5 contests. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at +7. Arizona’s offense heads into action averaging 4.6 runs per game in their last 5 contests. Similar to their season average of 4.44. Arizona’s overall series record is just 17-18-8.

The Padres will look to add another win, as in their last game, they defeated the Diamondbacks by a score of 6-5. On their way to giving up 5 runs, the Padres staff allowed 10 hits. Offensively, they finished with 6 runs on 6 hits. Heading into action, San Diego was the favorite at -165.0. So far, the team has won 56% of the games in which they were favored. The Padres and Diamondbacks went over the run total line set at 7.0 runs. Against the run total, San Diego is just 63-69-5.

The Padres come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. During this time, the team has a run differential of -14. In their 5 most recent contests, the team is scoring at a rate of 3.6, similar to their season-long average of 4.40. On the season, San Diego has won more than half of their series, going 21-15-7.

Pitching Matchup

Arizona will roll with Tommy Henry (3-3) as their starter. To date, Henry has an ERA of 4.83 while lasting an average of 5.2 innings per appearance. Compared to other starters, the left-hander has a high BA allowed, currently sitting at 0.25. So far, Henry has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 0.87 home runs per 9 innings. Henry has had trouble generating strikeouts, averaging just 3.83 K’s per game on a K rate of 17.0%. Throughout the season, Henry has avoided walking batters, allowing just 4.55 per contest.

In today’s game, San Diego turns to starter Yu Darvish. For the year, he has a record of 12-7. In his previous outings, Darvish has lasted an average of 6.49 innings, putting together an ERA of just 3.26. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.211. Darvish is allowing home runs at a rate of 0.94 per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Yu Darvish has a strong K% of 25.0%, including a per-game average of 6.48. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 1.72 walks per outing.

Arizona vs San Diego History

For the season, the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres will be playing their 15th game of the season. Currently, San Diego is winning the season series 10-4. Through 14 games, the series’ over-under record is 5-9, with the average run total sitting at 9.21 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 2.79 runs. San Diego won last year’s head-to-head series, grabbing 11 wins to 8. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 10-8, with the average run total being 9.21 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 4.37 runs per game.

Betting Trends

  • San Francisco is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco’s last 6 games
  • LA Dodgers is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing San Francisco
  • LA Dodgers is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Francisco

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres Prediction

Leading into Wednesday’s NL West matchup between Arizona and San Diego, the Padres are a heavy favorite on the moneyline. The last time Yu Darvish faced off vs the Diamondbacks, he picked up a win while giving up 3 runs across 7 innings. Look for San Diego to cruise to an easy win, making the best bet to take them on the runline.

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