Dodgers vs. Braves Odds, Trends, Predictions

by | Jun 25, 2022 | mlb

Los Angeles Dodgers (44-25) vs. Atlanta Braves (41-31)
When: 7:15 p.m., Saturday, June 25
Where: Truist Park, Atlanta
Moneyline: LAD +140/ATL -160 (Get better lines at BetNow)
Runline: Dodgers +1.5/Braves -1.5
Total: 8.5

Starting Pitchers: Mitch White (1-1, 3.86 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) vs. Max Fried (7-2, 2.77 ERA, 1.05 WHIP)

Rare Position

Here’s something you don’t see very often: the Dodgers coming into a game as the underdog. Very rarely does Los Angeles actually get plus money when they face off with anybody, yet the Dodgers are actually a sizable underdog in this spot. However, just because you see the Dodgers at plus money doesn’t mean it’s necessarily worth grabbing them at plus money. Mitch White has been OK so far in 2022, but he’s still adjusting to life as a starter and facing off with a lineup that has both hammered baseballs out of the park in 2022 and isn’t going to be the least bit intimidated by facing Los Angeles. With most teams, the Dodgers have a considerable edge based solely on their pedigree, but Atlanta is the one team in the National League that has stood up to the Dodgers and proven that they can win at the highest level. The number is where it is on the Dodgers for a reason: they’re genuinely going to have a tough time getting a win here.

Fried in Command

And here’s one of the main reasons why: Max Fried has shaken off his traditional tough start and re-emerged as a top option for Atlanta’s rotation. Fried is almost always someone to fade in the first few weeks of the season, as it seems to take him a couple of starts before he’s ready to go. But once he does get rolling, there are few better pitchers in the game. Sure enough, Fried has only been beaten twice all season, and those came in the first two starts of the year when the Reds and Nationals actually played lucidly before getting overwhelmed by the season. Otherwise, it’s been a rare occurrence to see Fried give up more than two runs in a contest. It’s only happened in three of his past 12 starts, and in two of them, the Braves battled back to gain the lead before the bullpen gave it up. Atlanta has won six straight with him on the mound, and the Dodgers haven’t exactly succeeded against him as of late; he held them to a mere two hits the last time they faced off.

Taking Multiple Bases

There’s a reason why these are two of the best teams in baseball: they’re excellent at hitting for power. The Braves and the Dodgers are tied for second in baseball in doubles, and both are at the top of the heap in home runs. Both teams sit in the top five in runs scored for the year, which suggests that runs are always a possibility. For the Dodgers, that’s been especially true in their past six games, as they’ve triggered the over four times with a push. However, none of those games were against a pitcher like Fried, making that a risky move here.

Betting Trends

  • The Dodgers are 4-0 in their past four road games.
  • The Dodgers are 42-18 in their past 60 games against a left-handed starter.
  • The Braves are 10-2 in their past 12 games against a right-handed starter.
  • The Braves are 10-2 in their past 12 home games.
  • The under is 6-0-1 in the Dodgers’ past seven road games against a left-handed starter.
  • The under is 6-1-1 in the Dodgers’ past eight road games in the series’ second game.
  • The under is 7-0 in the Braves’ past seven games against a starter with a WHIP under 1.15.
  • The under is 11-4 in the Braves’ past 15 Saturday games.
  • The Dodgers are 1-5 in their past six trips to Atlanta.
  • The under is 4-1 in the teams’ past five meetings.

Weather Report

The heat will be on in Atlanta, with temperatures hitting 88 degrees at first pitch. Wind won’t be much help either, with a breeze blowing at just five miles per hour.

Dan’s pick

It’s never easy to go against the Dodgers, but when Fried is on the mound and pitching as well as he is, I feel like that’s the only smart play to make in this situation. Atlanta is playing excellent baseball and playing at home, and with the edge in the pitching matchup, taking the Braves makes too much sense.

I’ll back Atlanta here.

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