Dodgers vs. Giants NLDS Game 1 Pick

by | Oct 8, 2021 | mlb

Los Angeles Dodgers (107-56) vs. San Francisco Giants (107-55)
When: 9:35 p.m., Friday, October 8
Where: Oracle Park, San Francisco
Moneyline: LAD -115/SF +105
Runline: Dodgers -1.5/Giants +1.5
Total: 7

Starting Pitchers: Walker Buehler (16-4, 2.47 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) vs. Logan Webb (11-3, 3.03 ERA, 1.11 WHIP)

Still the Dogs

The number of times where a team has won 107 games and still been an underdog in the first game of its playoff series can be counted on one hand with fingers to spare, but that’s the situation the Giants are facing here. The public just isn’t ready to let go of its faith in the Dodgers, even though the Giants nosed them out by a game and won the season series 10-9.

The Dodgers had the better of the play at Oracle Field thanks to an early-season sweep of the Giants, but San Francisco won three of the final four matchups between the teams, with just one of those four going over this total. These teams are no strangers to playing tight matchups in either park, and this feels like a situation where the Giants just aren’t getting enough respect.

Familiar Face

When you play a team 19 times in the regular season, you’re going to gain a measure of familiarity with that team, and that’s especially true when the pitchers get factored into the equation. The Giants have certainly seen a lot of Walker Buehler this season, as they’ve faced him six times with mixed results.

San Francisco has three wins and three losses against the Dodgers’ ace, and in their most recent meeting, they finally seemed to figure him out, knocking him out of the game in three innings and getting six runs off of him in the process. Buehler has usually been very comfortable at Oracle Park, having given up just one run in his other two starts in San Francisco for the year. By now, the Giants should know that things won’t be easy against Buehler, who’s held nine of his past 12 opponents to two runs or less.

Rough Closing

One of the main reasons the Dodgers are slight favorites in this contest is the pitching matchup, as Logan Webb hasn’t exactly been at his best toward the end of the season. The general consensus with the Giants is that they got off to a hot start and were only able to earn the NL West title because they had enough of a lead to hold off Los Angeles, and Webb’s finish to the season doesn’t exactly do much to change that narrative.

Over his final five starts of the year, the Giants managed to earn four wins and lost a fifth game in extra innings, but that was more because the offense came through each time, scoring at least six runs in all five of those starts. Webb did have a lot of success against the Dodgers early in the year, as San Francisco won all three of his starts against Los Angeles, but at the same time, he hasn’t faced the Dodgers since before the trade deadline. Both teams have changed since then, which could drastically change the equation from where things were earlier in the season.

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Betting Trends

  • The Dodgers are 42-11 in their past 53 games overall.
  • The Dodgers are 8-2 in their last ten playoff games.
  • The Giants are 5-1 in their past six games as an underdog.
  • The Giants are 5-0 in their past five Friday games.
  • The under is 6-1 in the Dodgers’ past seven Friday games.
  • The over is 5-1 in the Dodgers’ past six overall.
  • The over is 5-1 in the Giants’ past six games as an underdog.
  • The under is 4-1 in the Giant’s past five Friday games.
  • The Dodgers are 2-6 in their past eight meetings with the Giants.
  • The under is 5-2-1 in the past eight matchups.

Weather Report

It’s going to be a cool night in the city by the bay, as temperatures will drop to 57 degrees at first pitch. Wind can be a major factor in this game, as wind will blow at 14 miles per hour toward the northwest, which could send a ball or two into the San Francisco Bay.

Dan’s Pick

The Dodgers are favored for a reason, and that’s because Walker Buehler is simply considered a lot more trustworthy as a starter than Logan Webb. There’s little reason to think that Webb is going to win this duel based on how these pitchers have performed the past two months, and because of that, I’ve got to ride with the favorites here. Give me the Dodgers. Bet your MLB playoffs picks for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 at GTBets!