Dodgers vs. Giants NLDS Game 2 Pick

by | Oct 9, 2021 | mlb

Los Angeles Dodgers (107-57) vs. San Francisco Giants (108-55)
When: 9:35 p.m., Saturday, October 9
Where: Oracle Park, San Francisco
Moneyline: LAD -114/SF +104 (BetNow)
Runline: Dodgers -1.5/Giants +1.5
Total: 7.5un -112

Starting Pitchers: Julio Urias vs. Kevin Gausman

No Respect

At this point, the Giants either have to wonder what they have to do to impress the baseball world, or they’ve just given up on that entirely and are only focused on getting the job done through their play. So far, it seems the latter, as San Francisco looked excellent in the series opener. The Giants rode Logan Webb and got the start they needed from an early home run by Buster Posey, putting them in control of the series early in the contest. And yet, they’re again a home underdog. San Francisco might be the best team ever to still be an underdog at home, as the Giants have now won 108 games and are still no better than even money to win at home against a team they’re 11-9 against. If you do like San Francisco to win the World Series, do yourself a favor and get them now. The longer the Dodgers last, the longer the window stays open to get the Giants at a fantastic price, but if the Dodgers lose, the window shuts instantly.

Coming Home

It’s hard to believe, but Kevin Gausman has actually never gotten to face the Dodgers at Oracle Park with fans in the building. Gausman faced the Dodgers three times this year, but all three of those games came at Dodger Stadium. Whether the change of venue is a good thing or not remains to be seen because Gausman is the rare pitcher who has actually been better on the road than he was at Oracle Park.

Gausman’s ERA has been a full run higher at home than it has been on the road for the year, as he’s just 6-4 on the season in San Francisco. For whatever reason, the increased ground balls at home have turned into manufactured runs more easily, as his WHIP is almost identical between home and away performances. It’s been a baffling performance for him and one that makes it difficult to bet with much confidence.

Now or Never

When the Dodgers chose to go with Max Scherzer in the wild card game, they did it knowing they had two reliable options in Walker Buehler and Julio Urias in the games in San Francisco. But now Buehler’s lost his opening start, and the pressure is on for Urias to come up with a big performance and get the Dodgers back to Los Angeles with at least a spilt.

Based on his past start, Urias appears to be the guy who can make it happen. He enters with a 4-0 mark in the postseason and has won 20 games in an era where pitchers winning 15 is considered impressive. His last start in San Francisco was a comfortable 6-1 win, and the Dodgers have won 11 straight with him on the slab. Pairing Urias with the under has usually been the right way to go, as the under is 7-2-1 in his past ten starts.

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Betting Trends

  • The Dodgers are 42-12 in their past 53 games overall.
  • The Dodgers are 8-3 in their past ten playoff games.
  • The Giants are 6-1 in their past six games as an underdog.
  • The Giants are 13-3 in their past 16 home playoff games.
  • The under is 9-1 in the Dodgers’ past ten after a loss.
  • The over is 5-2 in the Dodgers’ past six overall.
  • The over is 5-2 in the Giants’ past six games as an underdog.
  • The under is 5-1 in the Giants’ past five Game 2s.
  • The Dodgers are 2-7 in their past eight meetings with the Giants.
  • The under is 6-2-1 in the past eight matchups.

Weather Report

Wind didn’t affect anything last game, but it’s got a chance to do it again, as it’ll blow to dead center at 11 miles per hour. Once again, low temperatures are in the forecast, with temperatures sitting at 59.

Dan’s pick

I’m not trying it twice with the Dodgers. At this point, I want San Francisco to show me that the Dodgers can beat them before I turn on the team that won the NL West and has looked outstanding at home all season. As good as Urias has been all season long, I’ve got to back the Giants as a slight dog in this one.

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