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Game 7 Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers

by | Oct 20, 2018 | mlb

Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers 10/20/18

Time: 8:09 PM ET

Where: Miller Park, Milwaukee, WI

Listed Pitchers: Walker Buehler (LA) vs. Jhoulys Chacin (Mil)

TV: Fox. FS-1

Moneyline: Dodgers -115/Brewers +105

Over/Under: 8

The National League pennant comes down to one game between Los Angeles and Milwaukee Saturday night at Miller Park. How are we playing this Game 7 with our daily free MLB picks?

Game 7 MLB Betting Odds

The Game 7 betting odds opened the Dodgers at around -130, with an over/under of eight runs. The early betting action then dropped that line about as much as 15 cents, to approximately -115.

Los Angeles could also be found getting around +135 giving the run and a half on the run line.

Game 7 Set-Up

The Brewers evened this NLCS at three games apiece with a 7-2 victory in Game 6 Saturday night. The Dodgers actually took a 1-0 lead on a lead-off home run in the top of the first inning by David Freese, but Milwaukee responded with four runs in the bottom of the first and rocked home from there.

Milwaukee cashed in as a +110 dog Saturday, so the dog is 4-2 in this NLCS.

The Dodgers took the regular-season series from Milwaukee four games to three.

Game 7 Starting Arms

This pitching match-up is a rematch of Monday’s Game 3, a 4-0 Brewers victory.

Veteran righty Chacin (15-8, 3.50) is 11/37 on quality starts this year, and 0 for his last eight, but those numbers don’t tell the story with him. Monday in Game 3 of this series he tossed 5 1/3 innings of three-hit, shutout ball, and in one start in that NLDS against Colorado Chacin threw five innings of three-hit, shutout ball. Stretching back a ways, over his last four starts he’s allowed just two runs and eight hits through 21 innings.

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On the season the Brewers are 25-12 with Chacin and 5-0 over his last four starts.

However, in one start earlier this season against LA Chacin got bombed for nine runs – eight earned – on five hits and four walks, along with three homers, through just 4 1/3 innings of a game Milwaukee eventually lost 21-5.

Rookie righty Buehler (8-5, 2.62) is 13/25 on quality starts this season, but 0 for two in these playoffs. Monday he gave up four runs and six hits through seven innings in that Game 3 against these Brewers, and in one start in NLDS against Atlanta he gave up five runs on two hits and three walks through five innings.

On the season the Dodgers are 14-11 with Buehler.

In one start earlier this year against the Brewers Buehler allowed just one run and five hits through seven innings, with seven strikeouts, although Los Angeles lost that game 1-0.

Buehler owns a couple of statistical edges on Chacin, but Chacin got the better of Buehler in Game 3 Monday. We’re giving Milwaukee a short edge in this pitching match-up.

Game 7 Batting Splits

Los Angeles posted .255/.337/.458 team batting average/OBP/slugging percentage split against right-handed pitching this season.

Milwaukee posted a .252/.323/.426 split against righties this year.

We’ll give the Dodgers a short edge in the splits with the sticks for Game 7.

The Bullpens

The Los Angeles bullpen put up a 3.72 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP this season. This unit has also allowed just five earned runs and 19 hits through 26 2/3 innings in this NLCS.

The Brewers bullpen put up a 3.47 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP this season. This unit has allowed 14 ER and 30 hits through 38 1/3 innings in this NLCS.

We’re giving Milwaukee a short edge in the comparison of the bullpens.

Totals Report

Unders are 43-41 in games played at Miller Park this year, which are averaging 8.6 total runs per.

Unders are a combined 37-24 with Chacin and Buehler starting this season.

Unders are 3-2-1 in this NLCS.

Free MLB Playoff Picks

We’re giving Milwaukee one star with our main baseball handicapping factors. Also, the Brewers were a National League-best 51-30 at home this season, and they’re 4-1 at Miller Park in these playoffs. Plus, Chacin is the Brewers’ best mound horse this year. We’re going with Milwaukee for our free MLB pick on this Game 7. Guys if you’re not already betting online, then there is no better time than now with the World Series, NFL, NBA and college sports all in season. Check out our Best in Category Sportsbook List.

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