RBD lays the points with the Atlanta Dream at home against Golden State in a July 4th WNBA matchup, backed by team-specific edges in the WF1 model and a revenge angle.
Golden State Valkyries at Atlanta Dream
A Pick on the Spread
Happy 4th of July!
I hope everyone has fun barbecuing with family and friends today.
And don’t lose any fingers playing with fireworks, you knuckleheads!
I’ve got a little morning action going today when the Valkyries visit the Dream.
I’m still having difficulty getting into the profit zone this season because all of my handicapping systems are hovering around the .500 range.
And today’s spot is no different.
WF1 has a record of 11-12 overall.
And when it’s a Rd team, like Golden State is today, the record is 8-8. No edge at all.
But team specific-wise I have an edge.
WF1 says the Valkyries should be the Fav today.
This is the first time they’ve appeared in the spot this season so I have no data there.
But this is the third time Atlanta has been the “dissed” team, the team the books have made the Fav but my numbers say they shouldn’t be.
And the Dream are a perfect 2-0 in this spot.
The Valkyries are getting +3′.
On the Rd, Golden State is 3-4 SU and 3-4 ATS.
When they’re getting four or fewer points, like today, they’re just 1-2 ATS.
The Dream are a solid 6-2 SU at Hm and 5-3 ATS.
I also have a little revenge going for me today with my Atlanta pick. The Dream and Valkyries have played each other twice in the last 10 days, with Golden State winning both of them.
But those games were played in Valhalla, where the Valkyries are 10-3 on the season.
Today’s game is in Atlanta.
The Dream are one game behind the Valkyries in the standings, and today’s game gives them the chance to pull even.
My play:
Atlanta -3′
Recap: 0-1
Record: 12-16
Review:
I had Atl/Wash Ov 167′.
Points scored:
Q1 45
That’s on pace for 180. Yay teams!
Q2 28 (yes, 28.)
Now on pace for a 146. Boo teams!
Washington had 18 turnovers in the first half.
The WNBA quarters are only 10 minutes long.
At 18 turnovers in the first half that’s an average of almost a turnover every minute.
Yeah, tell me again this is a pro league.
