Golden State Warriors (45-28) +9, 207 at San Antonio Spurs (51-23), 8:30 pm Eastern Tuesday
by Zman of Predictem.com
The Golden State Warriors are deeply involved in a multi-team race just to get into the playoffs, while the San Antonio Spurs are fighting for the top seed in the Western Conference. Thus is the situation as these two teams prepare to go at it for the third time this season Tuesday night in Alamo City.
NBA books list San Antonio as nine-point home favorites for Tuesday’s game, with a total of 207. The Spurs are also posted at around -400 on the moneyline, with Golden State getting +300 as road underdogs.
The Warriors beat Dallas Sunday 114-104, but are just 5-5 over their last 10 games. Golden State is in an all-out battle with the Mavericks and the Denver Nuggets for the last two playoffs slots in the West. Going into Tuesday’s action, the Warriors own the eighth and final post-season spot, trailing seventh-place Dallas by a half-game and leading ninth-place Denver by a half-game, with just nine games left to play.
Meanwhile, San Antonio has won seven straight games after beating Houston Sunday 109-88. So heading into Tuesday’s game, the Spurs are basically tied for the top spot in the West with New Orleans, just a game ahead of the third-place Los Angeles Lakers.
San Antonio has had the upper hand in the series with Golden State in recent years, and has beaten the Warriors 20 consecutive times at home. But the Warriors have beaten the Spurs in their two previous meetings this season, by scores of 130-121 (in overtime) Jan. 7 and 96-84 Dec. 11. Both those games were played in Oakland, and GS outshot San Antone from the field 45% to 42% in the two games together. And the rebounding totals were close, with the Spurs holding a 94-90 advantage.
Last season, San Antonio took three of four games from Golden State. And over the last six games in the series between these two teams, the o/u has gone 5-1 as the games have averaged 210 total points (excluding that OT period).
This season, the Warriors are 33-40 against the spread, 20-16 straight up and 19-17 vs. the numbers on the road. Meanwhile, San Antonio is 35-39 ATS this season, 31-6 SU and 20-16 vs. the numbers at home.
Statistically speaking, Golden State leads the league in scoring at 111 points per game but ranks last in scoring defense at 108 ppg. On the other side, the Spurs rank 3rd in scoring defense at 91 ppg and 24th in scoring at 96 ppg.
San Antonio ranks 5th in the league in point differential at +5.0 per game, the Warriors 12th at +3.0.
Golden State is shooting 46% from the floor this season, 35% from 3-point range and 75% from the free-throw line. At the other end of the court, the Spurs are shooting 46% from the floor, 37% from long range and 77% from the line.
San Antonio is allowing opponents to shoot 45% from the field this season, the Warriors 46%. But while the Spurs rank 9th in the league in rebounding at +1.0 per game, GS ranks 29th at -4.1 per game.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com rank the Spurs 6th at 95.4, the Warriors 12th at 92.4. Sagarin’s current NBA home-court advantage figure is 3.5.
The o/u is 40-31 in Golden State games this season, which are averaging 219 total points, while the totals are 31-43 in San Antonio games, which are averaging 187 points.
Zman’s Pick: Take the Spurs to squash Golden State tonight.