Guardians vs. White Sox Analysis & ML Bet

by | Last updated Jul 23, 2022 | mlb

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox
Date: Saturday, July 23rd, 01:10 ET
Location: Guaranteed Rate Field
Money Line: Guardians -110 / White Sox -110 (Bovada)
Total Line: 8.5


Cleveland: Triston McKenzie (7-6, 3.2)
Chicago: Johnny Cueto (4-4, 2.8)

Guardians Projected Lineup

Nolan Jones RF
Austin Hedges C
Franmil Reyes RF
Andrés Giménez 2B
José Ramírez 3B
Myles Straw CF
Josh Naylor 1B
Steven Kwan LF
Amed Rosario SS
Triston McKenzie P

White Sox Projected Lineup

Yoán Moncada 3B
Josh Harrison 2B
Gavin Sheets RF
Eloy Jiménez LF
Seby Zavala 1B
Luis Robert CF
José Abreu 1B
Tim Anderson SS
Andrew Vaughn LF
Johnny Cueto P


Cleveland Guardians: 46-44-0 SU / OU 43-43-5 / Run Line W/L 48-43-0
Chicago White Sox: 46-46-0 SU / OU 44-44-5 / Run Line W/L 43-50-0

The Chicago White Sox host the Cleveland Guardians on Saturday, July 23rd at Guaranteed Rate Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 01:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Chicago as the favorite (-110), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

The Cleveland Guardians are coming off a 6 run win over the White Sox by a score of 8-2. On their way to the victory, the pitching staff gave up 2 runs on 7 hits. The Guardians lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 15 hits, leading to 8 runs. This victory came despite being the betting underdog, getting 143.0 on the moneyline. This game went over the posted over-under line of 8.5 runs. With this result, Cleveland now has a .500 over-under record at 43-43-5.

In the Guardians’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 4-1. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +20. A key to their recent success has been an offense averaging 5.8 runs per game, compared to their season average of 4.38. So far, Cleveland has won over half of their 30 series played, going 14-11-5.

Chicago will look to move on from a 6 run loss to the Guardians, falling by the score of 8-2. On their way to giving up 8 runs, the White Sox staff allowed 15 hits. With their 7 hits, the White Sox could only plate 2 runners. Chicago came away with a loss, despite being favored on the moneyline (-158.0). For the season, the team has been favored in 55 games, winning at a rate of 55%. In terms of the over-under, the White Sox and Guardians combined to surpass the line of 8.5 runs. Now, the team’s over-under record is back to .500 (44-44-5).

In their last 5 games, the White Sox have put together a record of 3-2. Their recent success is backed by an average scoring margin of +16 (last 5). Overall, the White Sox are averaging 4.39 runs per contest. But, over their last 5 outings, they have been scoring at a clip of 6.8 runs per contest. Chicago has a below .500 series record of just 12-13-5.

Pitching Matchup

Triston McKenzie gets the start for the Guardians, with an overall record of 7-6. In his previous outings, McKenzie has lasted an average of 5.95 innings, putting together an ERA of just 3.2. So far, batters are hitting just 0.199 against him. Home runs have been a concern for McKenzie as he is allowing 1.42 per 9 innings. Per game, Triston McKenzie is averaging 5.65, on a strikeout percentage of 24.0%. Command has been a problem for McKenzie, as he is giving up 2.4 walks per outing.

Johnny Cueto gets the start for the White Sox, with an overall record of 4-4. Heading into the game, Cueto has appeared in 12 contests, posting an ERA of just 2.8. On average, he pitches 6.17 innings per appearance. Across his previous appearances, the right-hander has a batting average allowed of 0.243. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Cueto, as he is allowing just 1.09 per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Johnny Cueto has a strong K% of 19.0%, including a per game average of 4.83. Command has been a problem for Cueto, as he is giving up 2.43 walks per outing.

Cleveland vs Chicago History

Today’s matchup between the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox will be their 11th meeting of the season. Cleveland has the lead in the series at 7-3. Through 10 games, the series’ over-under record is 5-5, with the average run total sitting at 8.16 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 4.1 runs. Dating back to last season, Chicago picked up 10 wins compared to 9, taking the season series. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 10-9, with the average run total being 8.16 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 2.79 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland’s last 5 games when playing Chi White Sox
  • Cleveland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
  • Chi White Sox is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi White Sox’s last 5 games when playing Cleveland

Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox Prediction

Heading into Saturday’s AL Central showdown between Cleveland and Chicago, the oddsmakers suggest this game could go either way. However, I recommend taking the Guardians to pick up the road win. Not only does Triston McKenzie have an outstanding WHIP of just .98, but he is coming off a 12 strikeout performance before the All-Start break. Look for the White Sox to struggle vs. the Guardians right-hander.

Free MLB Pick: Guardians Moneyline

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