Guardians vs. White Sox Picks & Predictions

by | May 9, 2022 | mlb

Cleveland Guardians (14-14) vs. Chicago White Sox (14-13)

When: 8:10 p.m., Monday, May 9

Where: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago

Moneyline: CLE +160/SD -180

Runline: Guardians +1.5/White Sox -1.5

Total: 7.5

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Starting Pitchers: Zach Plesac (1-3, 4.44 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) vs. Michael Kopech (0-0, 1.17 ERA, 1.04 WHIP)

Jinx Team

So far, Cleveland’s had three matchups with Chicago and has looked by far the better side, winning the head-to-head matchup by a combined 19-5. The Guardians have been the stronger of the two when they come head-to-head for the past three seasons, as Cleveland owns a 20-12 mark against Chicago since 2020.

Despite that, the White Sox have been the better team at the end of the season, while the Guardians didn’t really threaten to make the playoffs. There are a couple of reasons for that: First, Cleveland just isn’t as talented roster-wise as Chicago, which has played much better against the rest of the American League than the Guardians have. Second, there have been real questions about how Tony La Russa has handled managing in the modern major leagues. La Russa is a Hall of Famer and one of the best managers in history, but he’s also now 77 years old, and his strategies don’t really fit the modern style of play. When matched up with Terry Francona, who has one foot in both eras, that’s simply not a good managerial matchup for the White Sox.

Just Under the Line

Michael Kopech still doesn’t have a win in 2022, largely because his team’s not giving him enough offense, and he’s not getting past the fifth inning and making himself eligible for a victory. In his five starts this season, Kopech has made it through the fifth three times, but the White Sox never scored more than three runs in any of those games, earning him three no-decisions. On the one occasion, his team did get him decent run support; Kopech only made it through four innings, making him ineligible for the victory.
On the plus side for him, wins aren’t really important for a pitcher these days, and he’s pitching very well in the innings where he does take the mound. He might not be getting wins, but he’s giving the Sox a chance to win each time.

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Batting Struggles

One thing the White Sox were not supposed to do this year was struggle at the plate, but that is exactly what has happened. For whatever reason, the Sox have not hit this year, going just .225 at the plate and plating a mere 89 runs on the campaign. The OBP isn’t providing a lot of help either, as the White Sox are getting on base just 28 percent of the time.

The one thing that’s kept the Sox from falling apart this year is the pitching, as the White Sox have an ERA of just 3.34 as a team for the season. However, defense is just as much a part of that as pitching; Chicago’s WHIP is a worrisome 1.28, as the White Sox are walking a few too many hitters.

Betting Trends

  • The Cleveland Guardians are 5-0 in their past five against the AL Central.
  • Cle is 4-1 in their past five games as an underdog.
  • The White Sox are 6-0 in their past six games overall.
  • The ChiSox are 5-0 in their past five games as a favorite.
  • The over is 6-1 in the Guardians’ past seven games overall.
  • The over is 7-1 in the Guardians’ past eight games against a right-handed starter.
  • The under is 5-0-2 in the CWS’s last seven games as a favorite.
  • The under is 4-1 in the Sox’s past five Monday games.
  • The under is 3-1-1 in the White Sox’s last five home games.
  • The Guardians are 4-1 in the past five meetings.

Weather Report

Don’t expect many home runs in these conditions. While temperatures have improved to 74 degrees, the wind will blow in at 17 miles per hour from right field at first pitch.

Dan’s Pick

The Sox are showing signs of getting this figured out, but they’re up against a Cleveland team that genuinely has their number and seems to know exactly how to handle itself in tight spots against them. Chicago has the more talented roster, but Cleveland has shown that it can trump the White Sox’s talent advantage and play sound baseball whenever it sees the black-and-white jerseys of the Pale Hose. I think the value sits with Cleveland here. I’ll take the Guardians to win. Bet your Guardians/White sox pick and ALL your baseball wagers for FREE this week by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook! (Must use bonus code PREDICT100).

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