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ALCS Bet: Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox Game 4 Prediction

by | Oct 17, 2018 | mlb

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Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox 10/17/18

Time: 8:35 PM ET
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Listed Pitchers: Rick Porcello (Bos) vs. Charlie Morton (Hous)
TV: TBS
Moneyline: Red Sox +140/Astros -150
Over/Under: 8.5

The underdog is now 3-0 in this ALCS, following Boston’s Game 3 victory in Houston. Do we ride that MLB betting trend with our free betting prediction for Wednesday’s Game 4?

MLB Playoffs Betting Line

The Game 4 MLB betting odds opened Houston at around -145, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. The early betting action then bumped that line about a nickel, to approximately -150 depending on which sportsbooks you bet at.

The Astros could also be found getting around +140 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Game 4 Set-Up

Houston took the opener of this best-of-seven affair at Fenway Park Saturday night, but the Sox have taken the next two games, including an 8-2 decision Tuesday afternoon. That game was tied at 2-2 through five innings, but Boston took the lead for good with a run in the sixth and pulled away with five in the eighth, capped off by a grand slam by Jackie Bradley, Jr. off Houston reliever Roberto Osuna.

The Astros won Game 1 as a +115 underdog on the MLB betting odds, while Boston took Games 2 and 3 as dogs of +120 and +115.

Also, all three games in this series have played over their totals, thanks mainly to some late-inning fireworks off the bullpens.

Houston took the regular-season series from the Red Sox four games to three.

Game 4 Starting Arms

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played back on June 3 also in Houston, a 9-3 Boston victory.

Veteran rightly Morton (15-3, 3.13), by our strict standards, finished 16/30 on quality starts this season, but he hasn’t pitched much lately. Most recently, back on Sept. 30, Morton threw three scoreless innings in a meaningless game against Baltimore, and over his last four appearances, stretching back a month, he’s allowed five runs and 12 hits through 15 innings, with 16 strikeouts.

But he has yet to throw in these playoffs.

On the season the Astros are 18-12 with Morton and 3-1 over his last four outings.

In two starts this season against the Red Sox Morton allowed eight runs and 16 hits, including three long balls, through 10 1/3 innings. The Astros split those two games.

Fellow righty Porcello (17-7, 4.28) finished 15/33 on quality starts during the regular season, and while he was 0 for his last eight, a short leash played a part. Now in these playoffs, he’s pitched a total of 6 2/3 innings, allowing one run on four hits. Three days ago in Game 2 of this series, he tossed one inning of scoreless relief, with two strikeouts, and eight days ago in that ALDS against the Yankees, he gave up one run and four hits through five innings of a 4-3 Boston victory.

On the season the Sox are 23-11 when Porcello starts,

In two starts this season against Houston Porcello allowed six ER and 12 hits, including three ding-dongs, through 12 innings. Boston won both those games.

Morton posted an ERA a run better than Porcello this season, but these guys are actually pretty close. For handicapping purposes, we’re giving the Astros a short edge in this pitching match-up.

Game 4 Batting Splits

The Red Sox posted a .275/.344/.473 team batting average/OBP/slugging percentage split against right-handed pitching this season, which was super.

The Astros posted a .246/.323/.410 split against righties this year.

We’re giving Boston the check-mark in the splits with the sticks for Game 4.

The Bullpens

The Boston pen put up a 3.72 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP during the regular season. This unit has also now allowed 12 ER and 18 hits through 29 1/3 innings in these playoffs.

The Houston bullpen put up a 3.03 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP this season, both of which led the Majors. This unit was also going great in these playoffs, allowing just two ER through its first 14 2/3 innings of work, but gave up six runs in four innings Tuesday.

Still, we must give the Astros the slight edge in the comparison of the bullpens.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 43-39 in games played at Minute Maid Park this year, which are averaging 8.1 total runs per.
  • Overs are 19-13 in Porcello’s starts this year.
  • Unders are 18-11 in Morton’s starts this year.
  • Overs are 9-2 in Sox-Astros games this season.

Free MLB Picks

It appears the oddsmakers are expecting some zig-zag betting action here because we’re calling this game a near-pick ’em on our own MLB betting line. Which points to value with Boston. We cashed in with the Red Sox Tuesday, and we’re sticking with them for out MLB pick of the day. Editor Notes: Go from sign up to betting in minutes by using one our recommended sportsbooks that accept BitCoin.

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