Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox ALDS Game 3 Odds & Pick

by | Oct 10, 2021 | mlb

Houston Astros (97-67) vs. Chicago White Sox (93-71)

When: 8:07 p.m., Sunday, October 10

Where: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago

Moneyline: HOU +100/CHW -120 (Choose from the Best Sportsbooks >>> 100% bonuses! Reduced juice! The BEST live betting and more!)

Runline: Astros +1.5/White Sox -1.5

Total: 8.5

Starting Pitchers: Luis Garcia vs. Dylan Cease

Three and Out?

Once again, the AL Central champion is on the verge of exiting the postseason with as many wins as the division’s last-place team. The White Sox are the latest team to come through the pillow fight that is the AL Central, only to find that it left them completely unprepared to deal with the best that the American League has to offer in the other two divisions. It’s now been four years since the AL Central champion won a playoff game, as the Indians (2017, 2018), Twins (2019, 2020) and White Sox (2021) have now combined to lose 13 straight playoff games.

Sometimes a team that’s beating bad teams is a good team, but in the case of the Pale Hose, this seems to be a team that won the division by default and arrived in the playoffs a year before they were ready for postseason pressures. Truth be told, the White Sox shouldn’t have been in this position, because the only AL teams they had a losing record against were the Astros, Angels and Yankees.

But the lack of competition meant that the Sox never had to play a meaningful game in September and get toughened up for the playoffs, because their lead was so large that they were never in danger. Conversely, the Astros got pushed by the Athletics and Mariners until the final week of the season and have been in playoff mode since the trade deadline.

Four, Four, Four

For whatever reason, four has been a magic number for Dylan Cease in terms of hits. Over his past nine starts, it hasn’t mattered how long he lasted, how many pitches he threw, how many batters he faced, the number of hits given up has been four every time.

Where has the difference come in? That’s from the other spot where four is a magic number: walks. When Cease doesn’t allow hitters a free pass, he’s proven excellent at run prevention. When he’s walking batters and giving the opponent free chances, things can spiral out of control in a hurry. In a recent game against Boston, Cease surrendered the same four hits as usual, but he also walked five hitters, which led to the Red Sox whacking him for seven runs in 2.2 innings. The Astros tend to be very patient hitters, so if Cease isn’t on, Houston can walk its way to the ALCS.

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Brief Cameo

Luis Garcia hasn’t spent much time in the postseason, but his stint last year was a solid one, as he didn’t give up a hit or a run in two innings of work. That’s probably not going to repeat itself, but even another solid road showing would be just fine with the Astros. Garcia has pitched well in three of his past four trips to the mound away from home, giving up two runs or less in each of them.

He hasn’t pitched in Chicago this year, but he did face the White Sox once back in June, giving up just one run and striking out eight in seven innings. If he’s anywhere close to that this time, the Astros should advance.

Betting Trends

  • The Astros are 5-1 in their past six playoff games.
  • The Astros are 6-1 in their past seven Game 3s of a series.
  • The White Sox are 6-1 in their past seven games as a favorite.
  • The White Sox are 4-1 in their past five against a team above .500.
  • The under is 6-1 in the Astros’ past seven playoff games as an underdog.
  • The under is 7-2 in the Astros’ past nine playoff games.
  • The under is 4-1 in the White Sox’s past five ALDS games.
  • The under is 4-1 in the White Sox’s past five Sunday games.
  • The Astros are 19-7 in the past 26 meetings.
  • The under is 15-7-1 in the past 23 meetings in Chicago.

Weather Report

It’s going to be a fairly warm evening in the Windy City, with temperatures at 75 degrees and winds blowing toward the third-base dugout at 10 miles per hour.

Dan’s pick

The White Sox should be better than this, but this is still a young team that doesn’t yet know how to win at this level. Their time will come in 2022 and beyond. I don’t see them extending this series and breaking the streak. I’m taking the Astros to keep the AL Central misery going.