Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees Pick 5/4/21

by | May 4, 2021 | mlb

Houston Astros (15-13) vs. New York Yankees (14-14)

When: 7 p.m., Tuesday, May 4

Where: Yankee Stadium, New York

Moneyline: HOU -105/NYY -105 (BAS - Favorites cost less and underdogs pay more!)

Runline: Astros +1.5/Yankees -1.5

Total: 8.5

Starting Pitchers: Zack Greinke (2-1, 3.44 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) vs. Domingo German (2-2, 4.05 ERA, 1.30 WHIP)

Long Awaited Rematch

It might be hard to remember now, but these teams faced off in the 2019 ALCS, where the Astros defeated the Yankees in six games and subsequently became the first team in AL history to be more hated than the Yankees when news of their sign-stealing scandal broke after the World Series. The teams didn’t face each other last season thanks to COVID keeping teams restricted to their geographic divisions, making this the first matchup between the squads since the 2019 ALCS.

These teams don’t really resemble the squads from two years ago on either the field or in the standings, as both teams have been somewhat mediocre to start the season. Houston barely sits above the .500 mark, and New York has been an even 7-7 both home and away to earn itself a perfectly .500 record to this point of the season. There’s still time for both of these teams to break out of the early cycle, and it’s a good thing because mediocrity isn’t what either one had in mind for this point of the year.

Two Out of Three

For whatever reason, Houston starter Zack Greinke has only managed to produce two solid starts in 2021 be-fore turning out a clunker. So far this season, Greinke’s starts have followed a simple pattern: shutout, decent start, rough outing. In the two less-than-stellar showings, Greinke has conceded ten runs in 8.2 innings of work; for the rest of the time, he’s given up four runs in 28 innings.

What that says is that when Greinke is on his game, he’s still one of the best pitchers in the game, but when things start to go in the wrong direction, they start to fall apart in a hurry. That makes this a likely potential live betting opportunity, as a struggling Greinke in the early goings likely means that the Astros are in trouble as far as hanging on to their lead throughout the contest.

Bronx Non-Bombers

The prevailing wisdom around the Yankees this season was that the hitting was going to carry them to victory and the pitching was a real question mark. Instead, the complete opposite is taking place. Despite having a rotation that appeared to be Gerrit Cole and little else at the start of the year, the Yankees have a very re-spectable 3.02 ERA as a team, good for third in baseball.

But the lineup really isn’t producing for the Yankees, who average just 3.93 runs per game, a number that’s just not good enough for the men in pinstripes. The Yankees have shown a few signs of breaking out of their offensive funk by posting a 10-run game and a 7-run contest, but the under actually managed to cash in the latter because Yankee pitching proved strong enough not to concede a run. That’s been par for the course for the Yankees in 2021, as the under has cashed in 10 of New York’s 18 contests this season.

Betting Trends

  • The Astros are 4-1 in their past five games as a road underdog.
  • The Astros are 5-2 in their past seven games against the AL East.
  • The Yankees are 5-1 in their past six games as a favorite.
  • The Yankees are 6-2 in their past eight Tuesday games.
  • The under is 8-1 in the Astros’ past nine Tuesday games.
  • The under is 5-1 in the Yankees’ past six against a team above .500.
  • The Yankees have won nine of the last 13 meetings in New York.
  • The Astros have won four of the past five matchups.

Weather Report

The wind will work against the teams here on a comfortable night for baseball, as temperatures will hover around 68 degrees with winds blowing eight miles per hour southeast toward the third-base dugout.

Dan’s Pick

The bet I like most here is the under, as both of these pitchers have been getting the job done well enough to get results for their squads as of late. But it’s German who appears to be on the upward trend for New York despite having to pitch each of his past three games away from Yankee Stadium. He was incredibly sharp in his most recent outing, holding the Orioles to a mere three hits in a shutout.

Granted, that was only the Orioles, but a three-hit shutout is still an impressive feat, and the Yankees seem to finally have things heading in the right direction. I’ll take them to carry the evening at home. Bet your MLB picks FREE this week by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH BONUS on your first deposit of $100 to $1000 at BetNow Sportsbook!

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