Jays vs. Astros Odds & Picks

by | May 8, 2021 | mlb

Toronto Blue Jays (16-15) vs. Houston Astros (17-15)

When: 7:10 p.m., Saturday, May 8

Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston

Moneyline: TOR +133/HOU -143 (Find the best sportsbook bonus >>> Why reup for nothing when you could be grabbing yourself a 100% bonus from multiple GOOD sportsbooks?)

Runline: Blue Jays +1.5/Astros -1.5

Total: 9

Starting Pitchers: Steven Matz (4-2, 4.78 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) vs. Cristian Javier (3-0, 1.75 ERA, 0.90 WHIP)

Eastern Explosion

The offense hasn’t been much of a problem for the Astros this season, as they’re averaging five runs a game in 2021, but facing the AL East has really sent things into overdrive where Houston is concerned. Through seven games against Tampa Bay, the Yankees, and now Toronto, the Astros have seen the total go over in five of them, with a sixth earning a push.

However, the Astros haven’t done all of that damage themselves as they went through a four-game stretch that saw them fail to score more than four runs. But the overs kept cashing, as Houston hit the number in all three games in the Bronx despite only winning one of those games. Toronto is the perfect opponent to pair with in that situation: four of the Blue Jays’ past five games have gone over the total, including the 10-4 loss to Houston in the series opener.

Diminishing Returns

A year ago, Steven Matz did his pitching for the New York Mets, and despite being traded away from his boyhood team and being traded into the AL East, the lefty got off to a solid start for his time representing Toronto (I can’t really say in Toronto, because thanks to the Jays’ nomadic situation, Matz hasn’t actually set foot in Ontario since joining the Blue Jays). But Matz’s past two appearances have been less than stellar, as he’s given up season highs in both hits and runs in each of them. The 11 runs he gave up in his two defeats were nearly double the runs he gave up in four victories, suggesting that the American League might be starting to get wise to what Matz is doing on the mound.

With Matz struggling to get results right now, the job falls to Toronto’s hitters to get the task done. Luckily, the Blue Jays also boast a top 10 offense that’s been even more consistent than Houston’s, as only two of Toronto’s last ten games have seen the total go under. Unlike the Astros, the Jays have done this with their own bats consistently doing the work, as they’ve scored at least four runs in nine of the past ten games.

Long Time Coming

When Javier gave up three runs to Tampa Bay in his most recent start, it marked the end of a three-game run, which saw Javier hold each opponent scoreless and give up no more than five base runners during his time on the mound. It wasn’t even that Javier pitched poorly against the Rays; he simply ran into a situation where Tampa Bay managed to string a couple of hits together at the right time.

For the year, Javier hasn’t allowed more than six base runners in a game during any of his starts, and he’s done a fine job of missing bats, having struck out an average of six hitters per appearance. He’s also far more susceptible to wind than most other options on the mound, as he overwhelmingly favors fly balls to ground balls. Against the Rays, there’s no air to worry about at Tropicana Field, but the ball spent a lot of time in the air, given that 11 of the Rays’ balls in play were fly balls.

Betting Trends

  • The Blue Jays are 5-2 in their past seven games.
  • The Blue Jays are 5-2 in their past seven road games against a road starter.
  • The Astros are 8-3 in their past 11 games as a favorite.
  • The Astros are 7-1 in their past eight home games against a team with a winning record.
  • The over is 6-2-1 in the Blue Jays’ past nine games.
  • The over is 3-0-1 in the Astros’ past four games.
  • The Astros have won eight of the past 11 meetings.
  • The over is 3-0-1 in the past four meetings in Houston.

Weather Report

If the Astros keep the roof open, the ball could be flying in this one. The temperature is projected to be 82 degrees at the first pitch, with south-southeast winds blowing 17 miles per hour straight out to dead center.

Dan’s Pick

I don’t love the idea of paying the juice with this pick, but with Matz really struggling to get the job done right now, I can’t see any way to avoid that while still making a pick on this game. For me, the bet I most want to make is the over, but I only want to make it if the roof stays open so that we can take advantage of those strong winds.

Houston has the stronger team at the moment, though, and with the Astros’ bats connecting well against Blue Jay pitching in the series opener, I’d expect a repeat to occur. Give me Houston and the over. Did you know that you could be wagering on games at reduced odds? There’s no catch! Baseball underdogs pay more, favorites cost less and football/basketball bets only cost -105 odds, rather than the -110 you’re laying at your book. Be smart with your loot and make the switch to cheaper betting odds TODAY at BetAnySports! We’ve advertised them for over 10 years with ZERO complaints! Click here to sign up now!

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