Los Angeles Angels (12-8) +150, o/u 9 Boston Red Sox (14-7), 7:05 pm Eastern Tuesday
by Zman of Predictem.com
The Los Angeles Angels hit Beantown for a three-game series with the Boston Red Sox beginning Tuesday night in a rematch of a first-round AL playoff series of a season ago.
Most Sportsbooks list Boston and Josh Beckett as -165 home chalk for Tuesday’s game, with an over/under of 9 . The Angels and Jered Weaver are getting right around +150 as road underdogs.
LA lost at home to Seattle Sunday 4-2, but still took that series two games to one, and has won six of its last eight. So going into this week’s action, Los Angeles is tied for first place in the AL West with the Oakland A’s.
Meanwhile, Boston beat Texas Monday 8-3 to finish off a four-game sweep of the Rangers. The Red Sox have now won five games in a row and nine of their last 10. So going into Tuesday’s game, Boston leads the AL East by two games over the second-place Baltimore Orioles.
Last year, the Sox swept the Angels in three games in the first round of the AL playoffs, outscoring LA by a 19-4 margin.
During the regular season last year, Boston took the season series from the Angels six games to four. The o/u went 6-3-1 in those 10 games, which averaged 10.6 total runs per.
LA is 6-3 on the road this season, 3-1 as underdogs and 8-12 vs. the run line. On the other side of this match-up, the Red Sox are 8-2 at Fenway Park this year, 11-3 as favorites and 10-11 vs. the run line.
Weaver (1-3, 3.60, 1.28 WHIP this year) is slated to make his fifth start of this season against Beckett (2-1, 5.12, 1.03), who’s set to make his fourth start. LA is 1-3 in Weaver’s starts this year, the o/u also 1-3, while Boston is 2-1 in Beckett’s starts, the o/u also 2-1.
In his most recent outing, Weaver allowed two ER on 11 baserunners (hits + walks) in six innings of work in a 3-2 Angels loss to Kansas City last Wednesday. Over his last three starts, Weaver has given up seven ER on 22 BR in 18 2/3 IP.
Weaver made three starts last year vs. the Red Sox, one of which came in the playoffs. He allowed 10 ER and 24 BR in 15 1/3 innings in those games. LA lost two of those starts, and two of them went over their totals.
In his latest outing, Beckett gave up three ER on seven BR in eight innings in a 7-5 Boston win at the Yankees last Thursday.
Last year, Beckett made three starts vs. the Angels, one of which came in the playoffs. He allowed just two ER and 17 BR over 22 IP in those starts, of which the Sox won two.
On the offensive side of things, Los Angeles ranks 7th in the majors in both team OBP at .348 and team slugging at .440, and is averaging 4.9 runs per game. On the other line-up card, Boston leads the league in OBP at .375 and ranks 6th in slugging at .447, and is averaging 5.3 RPG.
The Angels bullpen has allowed just one ER and 12 BR over its last five games, covering 12 IP, while the Sox pen has given up five ER on 17 BR in its last five games, covering 11 1/3 innings of work.
Overall, LA pitching has given up just 15 runs over its last five games, while Boston has scored 46 runs over its last six games.
The o/u is 10-9 in Angels games this season, which are averaging 9.3 total runs, while the totals are 11-9 in Red Sox games, which are averaging 10.1 runs per. And games played at Fenway Park last year averaged 10.2 total runs.
Zman’s Pick: Given Beckett’s past success vs. this Angels team, we expect more of the same. We hate to lay such big wood (heavy odds), but we’re doing it here.