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Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers Game 2 Pick

by | Oct 13, 2018 | mlb

Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers 10/13/18

Time: 4:05 PM ET
Where: Miller Park, Milwaukee, WI
Listed Pitchers: Hyun-Jin Ryu (LA) vs. Wade Miley (Mil)
TV: Fox
Moneyline: Dodgers -125 /Brewers +115
Over/Under: 8.5

Milwaukee grabbed the opener of this NLCS Friday night, and beat Clay Kershaw in the process. How are we playing Saturday’s Game 2 with our daily free MLB picks?

Set-Up

The Brewers took Game 1 of this series Friday night 6-5 at Miller Park, chasing Kershaw in the fourth inning, eventually cashing in as +120 home dogs on the MLB betting line. LA took a 1-0 lead on a Manny Machado homer in the top of the second but Milwaukee two runs in the third, three in the fourth and one in the seventh to take a 6-1 lead. The Dodgers then scored three runs in the eighth and one in the ninth, and got the tying run to third base with two outs, before Brewers reliever Corey Knebel struck out LA’s Justin Tucker to end the game.

With the win Milwaukee has now won 12 games in a row, stretching back to Sept. 22.

With the loss Los Angeles is still 7-2 over its last nine games.

LA took the regular-season series from the Brewers four games to three, outscoring Milwaukee 48-25, thanks mainly to a 21-5 victory in Los Angeles in August.

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Game 2’s Starting Arms

Lefty Miley (5-2, 2.57), by our strict standards, is only 6/17 on quality starts this season, and 0 for his last five. But those numbers certainly don’t tell the whole story. While he’s been kept on a short leash Miley has yet to allow more than three earned runs in an outing this season. Last Sunday he threw 4 2/3 innings in that NLDS against Colorado, allowing no runs and three hits, although in his two starts previous to that he gave up six ER and nine hits through seven innings.

On the season the Brewers are 13-4 with Miley, and 8-0 over his last eight outings.

In two starts this year against the Dodgers Miley allowed just one unearned run and six hits through 13 innings. Milwaukee split those two games.

Fellow lefty Ryu (7-3, 1.97) is 10/16 on quality starts this year, working on a string of four in a row. Eight days ago, in that NLDS against Atlanta, Ryu tossed seven innings of four-hit, shutout ball. And over his last four starts he’s allowed just one run and 16 hits through 26 innings, with 24 strikeouts against just two walks.

On the season the Dodgers are 11-5 with Ryu, 4-0 over his last four starts.

This will be Ryu’s first start against Milwaukee since 2013, and that’s a long time ago.

Ryu has been super as of late, and he may hold an edge on Brewers hitters who haven’t seen him, at least for the first couple of times through the lineup. But Miley has been great in two starts against LA this season. For handicapping purposes we’re giving the Dodgers a short edge in this pitching match-up.

Game 2 Batting Splits

LA posted a .240/.324/.409 team batting average/OBP/slugging percentage split against left-handed pitching this season.

Milwaukee posted .254/.323/.419 split against lefties this year.

We’ll the Brewers a short edge in this department for Game 2.

The Bullpens

The LA bullpen put up a 3.72 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP this season, while allowing opponents a .689 OPS. In these playoffs this unit has allowed 12 hits and just two runs over 15 2/3 innings of work.

The Milwaukee pen put up a 3.47 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP while allowing a .684 OPS. This unit allowed just two runs and eight hits through 17 1/3 innings of work in the NLDS victory over Colorado, but gave up four runs in the final two innings Friday night.

Still, we’ll give the Brew Crew a short edge in the comparison of the bullpens, too.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 42-39 in games played at Miller Park this year, which are averaging 8.6 total runs per.
  • Overs are 5-3 in Dodgers-Brewers games this season.

Free MLB Picks

We’re giving Milwaukee one star in our main handicapping factors, and the Brewers are a hot outfit, getting key hits and key outs at the right times. We bet the Brew Crew with our free MLB pick on Game 1 of this series Friday and we’re sticking with them for Game 2 and getting the plus money at 5Dimes.