Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox Pick – Game 1
Los Angeles Dodgers (99-75) vs. Boston Red Sox (115-56)(67.2%!)
When: Tuesday, October 23rd, 2018 (8:05 PM EST)
Where: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
By: Kevin West, MLB Handicapper, Predictem.com
Betting Odds: LAD +143/Bos -153
Total: 7.5 (Under -125)
Clayton Kershaw vs. Chris Sale
Kershaw comes into this one as an underdog for the first time in six years and for good reason. This isn’t the same pitcher we’ve seen in year’s past. For starters, he hasn’t been right on the road as of late. Over his past three road starts, he gave up 4 earned runs over 3 innings vs. the Brewers, 5 earned in 5 innings at SF and 3 earned over 6 innings at Arizona. He pitched well at home recently, so I don’t think it’s a matter of being out of gas. Some guys simply aren’t as comfortable on the road. His numbers were very respectable, but in his 9 road starts, he had a higher road ERA in 6 of those venues than he did at home. While not hugely consistent, I looked at some of his east coast starts over the past couple years and he’s been vulnerable when pitching on the east coast. Surely something to take note of.
Chris Sale is in a great spot here. The Sox quietly made one of the most intelligent moves in MLB this season. They limited Sale’s innings. After his August 12th start at Baltimore, Sox Brass knew they were a shoe in to make the playoffs so they started weaning the lefties innings. They gave him a whole month off, then brought him back for short appearances of 1, 3, 3.1 and 4.2 innings. He then went 5.1 vs. the Yankees in the playoffs, an inning out of the pen vs. the Yanks and only 4 in a playoff game vs the Astros when they had the win in hand. He comes into this one as fresh as can be. Sale has only thrown 22.1 innings since August 12th. During that span, he’s fanned 32 and only allowed one home run. All this and he gets to pitch at home where he’s been beyond dominant with a 2.11 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .202 batting average against.
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Reasons I Think Boston Gets the Money Tonight
Quite a few Dodger bats are cold. Dodger averages in the playoffs so far this season:
- Kemp .214
- Dozer .182
- Muncy .182
- Bellinger .139
- Grandal .125
- Kike .115
- Taylor .360 But .232 vs. LHP this season.
- Puig .333 Hit .209 vs. LHP this season. Sale will make him look stupid.
- Freese .300 Hits lefties well, good playoff performer.
- Turner .279 Hits lefties well, but not for power.
- Pederson .259 Can’t hit lefties.
- Machado .250 .154 vs. LHP in playoffs (2-13)
Other Dodger Stuff
The Dodgers have only been a road dog of +125 to +175 once this season, in which they won the game. The team went 49-36 in road games this season. The Dodgers have gone 8-4 in October, are 12-8 in interleague games, 43-28 vs. lefty starters and have gone 57-40 after a win. Oddly enough, they went 12-15 in games played on Tuesday’s.
Other BoSox Stuff
Boston went 20-8 this season as a home favorite of -125 to -175. The Sox domianted at home this season with a 59-26 record. Boston is 7-2 in October, 16-4 in interleague games, 80-46 in night games, 24-16 vs. lefties, 78-36 after a win, and play well vs. good teams with a 46-30 vs. teams with a winning record..
How the Public is Betting Game 1
Surprisingly, Boston is receiving 64% of the action. I had anticipated even-action in this game as Kershaw has been dominant for many moons which I’d have figured would be large and in charge in most baseball bettors minds.
Dodgers Betting Trends
- The Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- LA is 4-1 in their last 5 vs. American League East.
- LAD are 28-10 in their last 38 during game 1 of a series.
- L.A. is 78-37 in their last 115 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- The Dodgers have performed well vs. GOOD pitching with a 35-17 record in their last 52 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- LA is 43-12 in Kershaw’s last 55 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- LA is 73-23 in Kershaw’s last 96 starts.
- The Dodgers are 36-15 in Kershaws last 51 road starts.
- The Dodgers are 0-4 in their last 4 games at Fenway Park.
Red Sox Betting Trends
- The Red Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 World Series home games.
- Boston is 12-2 in their last 14 World Series games.
- The BoSox are 13-3 in their last 16 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Boston has been dominant in interleague play with a 40-11 in their last 51.
- Boston is 46-19 in their last 65 home games.
- Boston is 64-29 in their last 93 overall.
- The Sox are 11-2 in Sale’s last 13 starts.
Temps should be around 50 degrees at game time. Winds are blowing in from left at 7mph. There’s a 30% chance of rain, but it’s expected to happen before and after the game.
Kevin West’s Pick to Win Game 1
Boston has the edge in almost every category. I believe they have an 80% chance of winning tonight based on the variables in play.