Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies Pick 9/17/20

by | Sep 17, 2020 | mlb

Los Angeles Dodgers (35-15) vs. Colorado Rockies (22-26)

When: 8:40 p.m., Thursday, September 17

Where: Coors Field, Denver

Starting Pitchers: Julio Urias (3-0, 3.53 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) vs. Kyle Freeland (2-1, 3.54 ERA, 1.32 WHIP)

Moneyline: LAD -165/COL +153 (BetNow - Currently running a 100% Bonus up to $500!)

Runline: Dodgers -1.5/Rockies +1.5

Total: 11.5

Desperate Times

Remember when the Rockies were the talk of baseball after getting off to a strong start, seemingly moving up the timetable for them to compete for a World Series? Yeah, all of that is long gone after Colorado has since crashed and won just 10 of its last 21 games. The Rockies have not only fallen off the pace in the NL West, but they’ve fallen behind the Giants for third place in the division, which has them on the outside looking in at the playoff race.

With 12 games to go, it’s now going to take a minor miracle for the Rockies to make it, and it’s going to have to include winning at least three of four from the Dodgers. Colorado’s most recent series victory did come against Los Angeles, but there’s no denying that the Dodgers are the more talented team and can easily knock the Rockies out of the race if they’re inclined to do so.

Plus, Kyle Freeland isn’t exactly one who’s had success against Los Angeles. His last win against the Dodgers came in 2018, and a 5.89 ERA over his past four starts against Los Angeles isn’t exactly a promising number. Freeland has kept the Rockies in games against the Dodgers, as he’s just 0-1 in those four starts, but more often than not, the rest of the team hasn’t picked him up.

Motivation?

While the Rockies throw caution to the wind in a desperate attempt to rescue the season, the Dodgers can put it on cruise control. Los Angeles owns the best record in baseball and a 3.5 game lead on San Diego, positioning themselves to earn the top seed in the National League and set up their rotation any way they want. With no home field advantage to worry about, thanks to baseball going the bubble route for the playoffs past the first round, the Dodgers really don’t have to concern themselves with record or seeding. As long as they stay in the top four, they’ll get home-field advantage in round one, and only three teams are even within ten wins of them in the standings.

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So there’s a real question of motivation for the Dodgers in this contest, as Los Angeles clinched a playoff spot yesterday and only needs to win half of its remaining games in order to claim the NL’s top seed. Given that the Dodgers are traveling after picking up two wins at San Diego, there’s a real chance that the Dodgers come out flat in this game.

Rocky Mountain Low

The offense really hasn’t been there at Coors Field this year, in part because Colorado just isn’t scoring runs. The Rockies have gone under the total in four straight at home because they’ve scored only nine runs in their past four home games. In fact, the Rocky Mountain Low has become a common theme this year for gamblers (except when I bet it; every time I take the under in Denver happens to be the game when Colorado chooses to get lit up).

With Freeland on the mound, there’s a good chance it could hit again, as the under has hit in seven of his past ten starts, and the combination of Dodger pitching with bad hitting from the Rox should be enough to keep the game under the inflated total. (Now that I’ve told you that, you might want to go ahead and bet the over to try to take advantage of Colorado’s continued ability to annoy me.)

Betting Trends

  • The Dodgers are 37-15 in their past 52 division games.
  • The Dodgers are 37-14 in their past 51 as a road favorite.
  • The Rockies are 2-6 in their past eight games.
  • The Rockies are 3-8 in their past 11 series openers.
  • The under is 4-0 in the Dodgers’ past four with the total at 11 or higher.
  • The under is 5-0-1 in the Rockies’ past six.
  • The Dodgers have won eight of 11 in Denver.
  • The under is 4-1 in the teams’ past five meetings in Denver.

Weather Report

The weather shouldn’t be a factor, with temperatures at 83 degrees and a weak breeze of four miles per hour blowing from the northeast, sending balls in from right-center.

Dan’s Pick

I question whether the Dodgers will really be ready to play this game after clinching a playoff spot and turning around to fly to Denver, cross time zones, and play a team that has to be at the height of desperation. I expect Los Angeles to boss the rest of this series, but I think Colorado has an opening in the first game of this series and will bet it accordingly. I’m taking the live dog and going with the Rockies. Note: Don’t forget to check out our Bengals/Browns Thursday night football picks!