Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick 4/20/19

by | Apr 20, 2019 | mlb

Los Angeles Dodgers (14-8) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (12-9), 4/20/19
Time: 7:10 pm ET
Where: Miller Park, Milwaukee, WI
Listed Pitchers: Hyun-Jin Ryu (2-0, 3.07 ERA, 0.89 WHIP) vs. Chase Anderson (1-0, 4.50, 1.40)
TV: FS 1, SportsNet LA, FS Wisconsin

Moneyline: LAD-125 / MIL +115
Over/Under: 9.5

Milwaukee took a series at Chavez Ravine last week, but the Dodgers have taken the first two games of this four-game series from the Brewers in Beer City. Can the Brew Crew get on the board Saturday? And which way are we going here with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

As of this writing, Saturday’s MLB betting odds were holding off on lining this game, as Milwaukee pondered its pitching options. It looks like the Brewers are going with Anderson for Saturday, but for some reason, oddsmakers were still thinking about an opening line.

Dodgers vs. Brewers Set-Up

Los Angeles took the opener of this series Thursday night 3-1, then won Friday night 5-3. The Dodgers won as +100 underdogs on the MLB betting line Thursday and as -115 favorites Friday.

Friday night’s game was tied at 2-2 in the eighth inning when LA’s Enrique Hernandez drilled a two-out, two-strike three-run homer off Brewers relief ace Josh Hader.

Also, the first two games in this series have played under totals of 9.5.

So the Dodgers now own a six-game winning streak, after losing six in a row.

LA pitching has allowed just seven runs total over its last four games.

At 14-8 overall the Dodgers now lead the NL West by 2.5 games over second-place San Diego.

Milwaukee, meanwhile, now owns a three-game losing streak.

At 12-9 overall Milwaukee trails first-place Pittsburgh by one game in the NL Central.

This series is the second encounter between these teams this season; last weekend the Brewers took two of three games from the Dodgers out in LA.

Saturday’s Starting Arms

Anderson is making his first start of this season after five appearances in relief. Most recently he threw an inning and a third of scoreless relief against St. Louis Tuesday, and on the season he’s allowed five runs and 10 hits through 10 innings.

Last season Anderson only finished 11/30 on quality starts, but Milwaukee finished 16-14 with him.

In two starts last year against Los Angeles Anderson allowed four runs and nine hits through 10 innings. The Brewers split those two games.

Lefty Ryu started 2/2 on quality starts this season, holding Arizona and San Francisco to three runs and 10 hits through 13 innings, with 13 strikeouts. Then he gave up two runs in less than two innings against St. Louis and hit the DL with a pulled groin. So Ryu is coming off the DL Saturday to make his first start in 12 days.

Los Angeles is 2-1 with Ryu this season, with the overs going 2-1.

In two starts last year against the Brewers, both in the National League championship series, Ryu allowed seven runs and 13 hits through just 7 1/3 innings. The Dodgers split those two games.

Saturday’s Batting Splits

Los Angeles is batting .278/.365/.512 against right-handed pitching this season.

Milwaukee is batting .280/.346/.484 against left-handed pitching this season. But this lineup has also scored just seven runs total over its last three games.

The Bullpens

The Dodgers bullpen owns a 4.46 ERA this season, with a 1.22 WHIP and a 80/23 strikeouts/walks ratio.

The Brewers bullpen owns a 4.50 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP and an 83/37 K/BB ratio this season.

Totals Report

  • The totals are split 11-11 in Dodgers games this season, although LA has played seven unders in a row. Dodger pitching has allowed a total of just 11 runs over its last six games.
  • The unders are 12-8 in Brewers games this season.
  • The unders are 4-1 in Dodgers-Brewers games this season.
  • The overs are 6-5 in games played at Miller Park this season.

Free MLB Pick

This game sets up as a double play under the MLB streak betting theory, but we don’t always abide by that. Anderson had some success against Los Angeles last year, and Milwaukee had some success against Ryu. Also, the Brewers are very likely to be offered as home dogs here. We’ll go with Milwaukee for our free MLB pick for Saturday.

Take the Milwaukee Brewers +115