Mariners vs. Astros Pick 7/28/22 – Runs may be scarce

by | Last updated Jul 28, 2022 | mlb

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros
Date: Thursday July 28th, 08:10 ET
Location: Minute Maid Park
TV: ATT SportsNet-SW
Money Line: Mariners 128 / Astros -153
Total Line: 8.0
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Seattle: Logan Gilbert (10-4, 2.85)
Houston: Jose Urquidy (9-4, 3.93)

Mariners Projected Lineup

Kyle Lewis RF
Cal Raleigh C
Jesse Winker LF
Eugenio Suárez 3B
Adam Frazier LF
J.P. Crawford SS
Carlos Santana 1B
Julio Rodriguez CF
Ty France 1B
Logan Gilbert P

Astros Projected Lineup

Aledmys Díaz 2B
Jake Meyers CF
Kyle Tucker RF
Yuli Gurriel 1B
Alex Bregman 3B
Martín Maldonado C
Yordan Alvarez LF
Jose Altuve 2B
Jeremy Peña SS
Jose Urquidy P


Seattle Mariners: 54-45-0 SU / OU 46-51-2 / Run Line W/L 50-49-0
Houston Astros: 64-35-0 SU / OU 36-60-3 / Run Line W/L 51-48-0

The Houston Astros host the Seattle Mariners on Thursday, July 28th at Minute Maid Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 08:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Houston as the favorite (-153), with an OU line set at 8.0.


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Recent Form

Heading into today’s game, Seattle will be looking to tack on another win, after taking down the Rangers by the score of 4-2. Overall, the team’s pitching staff limited the Rangers to 2 runs on 6 hits. The Mariners benefited from an offense that generated 4 runs on 6 hits. This victory came despite being the betting underdog, getting 105.0 on the moneyline. Together, the Mariners and Rangers stayed below the over-under line set at 8.0 runs. This outcome pushed Seattle’s over-under record further below .500 at 46-51-2.

The Mariners are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 3-2 over their last 5 games. However, even with an above .500 record (last 5) their run differential sits at just -1 (last 5). Seattle’s offense heads into action averaging 3.8 runs per game in their last 5 contests. Similar to their season average of 4.10. So far, Seattle has won over half of their 31 series played, going 17-13-1.

In Houston’s last outing, they fell by a score of 4-2 to the Athletics. For the game, the pitching staff held the Athletics to 4 runs on 8 hits. The Astros offense ended the game with just 2 runs on 5 hits. Houston came away with a loss, despite being favored on the moneyline (-225.0). So far, the team has won 67.0% of the games in which they were favored. Combined, the Astros and Athletics’ run total fell below the over-under line of 7.0 runs. Now, Houston had an over-under record of 36-60-3.

In their last 5 contests, the Astros have just 2 wins, going 2-3. During this time, the team has a run differential of -1. Even with their recent struggles, the offense has been steady, averaging 4.2 runs per game. This is right in line with their season average of 4.43. On the season, Houston has won more than half of their series, going 21-10-2.

Pitching Matchup

Seattle will roll with Logan Gilbert (10-4) as their starter. In his previous outings, Gilbert has lasted an average of 5.85 innings, putting together an ERA of just 2.85. Across his previous appearances, the right-hander has a batting average allowed of 0.235. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Gilbert, as he is allowing just 0.92 per 9 innings. On the season, Logan Gilbert has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 23.0%. This includes a per game average of 5.6 K’s per game. Command has been a problem for Gilbert, as he is giving up 2.31 walks per outing.

In today’s game, Houston turns to starter Jose Urquidy. For the year, he has a record of 9-4. To date, Urquidy has an ERA of 3.93 while lasting an average of 5.57 innings per appearance. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, with a batting average of 0.258. Opposing hitters are hitting home runs at an above-average rate against Urquidy. This year, he is allowing 1.53 HRs per 9 innings pitched. On the season, Jose Urquidy has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 18.0%. This has led to an average of 4.28 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 1.97 walks per outing.

Seattle vs Houston History

For the season, the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros will be playing their 16th game of the season. Currently, Houston is winning the season series 9-6. The over-under record in this series sits at 6-9. The average run total in these games is 9.37 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 4.0 runs. Houston won last year’s head-to-head series, grabbing 11 wins to 8. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 11-7, with the average run total being 9.37 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.79 runs per game.

Betting Trends

  • Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
  • Seattle is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston’s last 6 games at home
  • Houston is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros Prediction

Heading into Thursday’s American League matchup between Seattle and Houston, the over-under line is set at 8 runs. In his last outing vs Seattle, Jose Urquidy gave up just 1 run over 6 innings. On the other side, Logan Gilbert took the loss but only gave up 2 runs. But, the key trend between the two games was the low combined run totals, finishing at 7 and 4 runs, respectively. I recommend taking the under.

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