Mariners vs. Marlins Free MLB Pick 4/30/21

by | Last updated Apr 30, 2022 | mlb

Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins

Date: Saturday, April 30th, 6:10 ET

Location: LoanDepot park


Money Line: Mariners -118 / Marlins 110

Total Line: 7.5

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Seattle: Robbie Ray (2-1, 3.91)
Miami: Jesus Luzardo (1-1, 3.77)


Seattle Mariners: 11-9-0 SU / OU 10-10-0 / Run Line W/L 13-7-0
Miami Marlins: 11-8-0 SU / OU 7-12-0 / Run Line W/L 11-8-0

The Miami Marlins host the Seattle Mariners on Friday, April 30th at LoanDepot park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 6:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Seattle as the favorite (-118), with the total line offered at 7.5.

Recent Form

The Mariners come into this game, having suffered a 8-6 loss to Miami. The loss came as Seattle was the betting underdogs, getting 108.0. Through 11 games as the underdog, the team has a win percentage of 36.0%. On their way to giving up 8 runs, the Seattle pitching staff allowed a total of 10 hits. Offensively, the team generated a total of 10 hits of their own. Together, the Mariners and Miami combined to surpass the over-under betting line set at 8.0 runs. With this result, Seattle now has a .500 over-under record at 10-10-0.

The Mariners will be hoping to pick up a win in today’s matchup, as they have gone just 2-3 over their last 5 games. Despite their below .500 record in this stretch, the team still has a positive run differential at 1. In their last 5 contests, Seattle is averaging 4.4 runs per game, right in line with their season average of 4.70. Seattle’s overall series record is just 3-3-1.

Miami will look to keep things rolling as they are coming off a 8-6 win over Seattle. This was a good win for the Marlins, as they were underdogs at 132.0. So far, the team has gone into 10 games as the underdog, still finding the win column at a rate of 70.0%. Offensively, Miami came up with 10 hits, while the team’s pitching staff allowed 10 hits, leading to 6 runs. In terms of the over-under, the Marlins and Seattle combined to surpass the line of 7.5 runs. So far, Miami has an over-under record of just 7-12-0.

The Marlins come into the matchup looking to stay hot, going 5-0 over their last five contests. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at 8. Offensively, Miami’s lineup has been steady at 4.6 runs per game over their last 5 contests. For the season, the team comes in with a per-game average of 4.05. On the season, Miami has won more than half of their series, going 4-3-0.

Pitching Matchup

For the Mariners, Robbie Ray gets the start. So far, he has put together a record of 2-1. To date, Ray has an ERA of 3.91, while lasting an average of 6.28 innings per appearance. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.239. In addition to a high, a batting average allowed, opposing batters have been able to drive the ball with power against the Rays, averaging 1.42 homers per 9 innings pitched. Up to this point, Ray has a strikeout percentage of 17.6% and a per 9 average of 6.0. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 2.0 walks per contest.

For the Marlins, Jesus Luzardo gets the start, with a record of 1-1. Leading up to the game, Luzardo has an ERA of 3.77. So far, he is averaging 4.7 innings per outing. So far, he has been able to limit base runners, with a batting averge allowed of just 0.204. In addition, he has yet to give up a home run. A strength of Jesus Luzardo’s game is his ability to generate swings and misses, striking out batters at a rate of 37.7%. Throughout the season, walks have been a slight issue, as he is giving up 2.33 free passes per outing.

Seattle vs Miami History

So far, the Miami Marlins and Seattle Mariners have met up 1 time, with Miami winning the season series 1-0. Through 1 game, the series’ over-under record is 1-0, with the average run total sitting at nan runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 2.0 runs. Miami and Seattle did not play each other in 2021.

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Betting Trends

  • Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 interleague road games.
  • Marlins are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a win.
  • Marlins are 5-2 in their last 7 during game 2 of a series.

Seattle Mariners at Miami Marlins Prediction

When looking at the pitching matchup, I give the edge to Miami as even though Robbie Ray has a decent ERA, his FIP sits at 4.8, suggesting he could be in line for some regression. I recommend taking Miami to pick up the win.

Free Pick:Miami ML

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