Mariners vs. Mets Runline Value Pick

by | Last updated May 13, 2022 | mlb

Seattle Mariners vs New York Mets

Date: Friday, May 13th, 07:10 ET

Location: Citi Field


Money Line: Mariners +167 / Mets -204 (BAS – Bet on football/basketball at -105 instead of -110! Baseball dimelines too!)

Total Line: 7.0


Seattle: Marco Gonzales (1-4, 3.91)
New York: Max Scherzer (4-1, 2.92)

Mariners Projected Lineup

Julio Rodriguez CF
Jarred Kelenic RF
J.P. Crawford SS
Abraham Toro 2B
Luis Torrens C
Jesse Winker LF
Eugenio Suárez 3B
Adam Frazier RF
Ty France 1B
Marco Gonzales P

Mets Projected Lineup

Eduardo Escobar 3B
Jeff McNeil LF
J.D. Davis 3B
Starling Marte RF
James McCann C
Francisco Lindor SS
Pete Alonso 1B
Brandon Nimmo CF
Mark Canha LF
Max Scherzer P


Seattle Mariners: 14-18-0 SU / OU 16-15-1 / Run Line W/L 16-16-0
New York Mets: 22-11-0 SU / OU 14-16-3 / Run Line W/L 20-13-0

The New York Mets host the Seattle Mariners on Friday, May 13th at Citi Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places New York as the favorite (-204), with an OU line set at 7.0.

Recent Form

In Seattle’s last game, they fell to the Philadelphia by a score of 4-2. On their way to giving up 4 runs, the Mariners staff allowed 7 hits. With their 8 hits, the Mariners could only muster 2 runs. This defeat came despite being favored at -145.0. Through 14 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 57%. Combined, the Mariners and Philadelphia fell short of the over-under betting line of 7.5 runs. Seattle games have still surpassed the over-under line more than half of the time, at (16-15-1).

Over the Mariner’s last 5 contests, they have a record of just 2-3. This mark has come on an average run margin of just -15. On offense, Seattle’s offense has experienced a dip in production, averaging 2.2 runs per game over their last 5 contests. Seattle’s overall series record is just 3-6-1.

New York is coming off a 3 run win over the Nationals (4-1). For the game, the pitching staff held the Nationals to 1 run on 4 hits. The Mets offense ended the game with just 4 runs on 5 hits. New York picked up the win while being favored at -155.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 29 games, winning at a rate of 69.0%. Combined, the Mets and the Nationals’ run total fell below the OU line of 9.0 runs. This result comes as no surprise, as the team’s over-under record is just 14-16-3.

In their last 5 games, the Mets have put together a record of 3-2. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at 4. New York is still playing winning baseball, even with their offense averaging just 3.8 runs per game, compared to a season-long mark of 4.45. On the season, New York has won more than half of their series, going 9-0-1.


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Pitching Matchup

The Seattle Mariners will send Marco Gonzales to the mound with an overall record of 1-4. So far, Gonzales has put together an ERA of 3.91. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.18 innings. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the left-hander, with a batting average of 0.29. Home runs have been an issue for Gonzales, as he is allowing an average of 2.87 per 9 innings pitched. Gonzales is in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts, averaging just 2.83 K’s per game. This includes a strikeout percentage of 14.0%. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 3.55 walks per outing.

The New York Mets will send Max Scherzer to the mound with an overall record of 4-1. To date, Scherzer has an ERA of 2.92 while lasting an average of 6.17 innings per appearance. Through 6 outings, opposing teams have combined for a batting average of 0.197. Home runs have been a concern for Scherzer as he is allowing 1.22 per 9 innings. On the season, Max Scherzer has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 34.0%, while averaging 8.16 K’s per game. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 2.19 walks per contest.

Seattle vs New York History

Today’s game between Seattle Mariners and New York Mets is their matchup of the year.

Betting Trends

  • Mariners are 6-1 in their last 7 games following an off day.
  • Mariners are 15-6 in their last 21 Friday games.
  • Mets are 7-1 in their last 8 during game 1 of a series.
  • Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.

Seattle Mariners at New York Mets Prediction

With Marco Gonzales on the mound for Seattle, the Mets come into the game as the heavy favorite. Through 6 outings, Gonzales’ advanced metrics show has pitched worse than his ERA of 3.91. On the season, his FIP is at 7.19 and an expected ERA at 6.04. On the other side, Max Scherzer is having another outstanding season. The Mets -204 doesn’t have a lot of value, so instead, I like New York -1.5 runs.

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