Marlins vs. Braves Best Bet 9/3/22

by | Sep 3, 2022 | mlb

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves

Date: Saturday September 3rd, 07:20 ET

Location: Truist Park

TV: Bally Sports Southeast

Money Line: Marlins +160 / Braves -195 (Betonline - Check out their 500K NFL Handicapping Contest!)

Total Line: 7.5

STARTING PITCHING

Miami: Edward Cabrera (4-2, 2.45)
Atlanta: Jake Odorizzi (4-3, 3.75)

Marlins Projected Lineup

Jacob Stallings C
Lewin Diaz 1B
Brian Anderson RF
Miguel Rojas SS
Jon Berti 3B
Peyton Burdick LF
Garrett Cooper 1B
J.J. Bleday CF
Joey Wendle SS
Edward Cabrera P

Braves Projected Lineup

Vaughn Grissom 2B
Michael Harris II CF
Travis d’Arnaud C
Ronald Acuña Jr. RF
William Contreras C
Austin Riley 3B
Robbie Grossman RF
Matt Olson 1B
Dansby Swanson SS
Jake Odorizzi P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Miami Marlins: 55-76-0 SU / OU 56-68-7 / Run Line W/L 60-71-0
Atlanta Braves: 82-51-0 SU / OU 67-58-8 / Run Line W/L 69-64-0

The Atlanta Braves host the Miami Marlins on Saturday September 3rd at Truist Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:20 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Atlanta as the favorite (-195), with an OU line set at 7.5.

Recent Form

The Marlins come into this matchup having suffered a 7 run loss to Atlanta (8-1). On their way to giving up 8 runs, the Marlins staff allowed 11 hits. On offense, the Marlins finished with 1 run on 5 hits. The loss came as Miami was the betting underdog, getting 153.0 on the moneyline. Together, the Marlins and Atlanta combined to surpass the over-under betting line set at 7.0 runs. Even with this game going over the total, Miami still has an over-under record of just 56-68-7.

The Marlins will be hoping to pick up a win in today’s matchup, as they have gone just 0-5 over their last 5 games. This mark has come on an average run margin of just -21. Miami’s offense is in the middle of a cold streak, as their offensive production has dipped to just 1.4 runs per game over their last 5 contests. Miami’s overall series record is just 12-26-5.

The Atlanta Braves are coming off a big win over the Marlins by a score of 8-1. In the win, the pitching staff allowed just 1 run on 5 hits. In the victory, the Braves came up with 11 hits and 8 runs. In the game, Atlanta was able to take care of business as they were the favorite at -185.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 111 games, winning at a rate of 69.0%. The Braves and Marlins went over the run total line set at 7.0 runs. Overall, the team has gone over the betting line in over half of their games, going 67-58-8.

Across their last 5 contests, the Braves are above .500, going 3-2. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +7. Atlanta has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 3.8 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 4.94. On the season, Atlanta has won more than half of their series, going 23-13-6.

Pitching Matchup

Edward Cabrera gets the start for the Marlins, with an overall record of 4-2. Through 8 appearances, Cabrera has an ERA of just 2.45 while averaging 5.5 innings per appearance. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.151. Not only does Cabrera have a strong batting average allowed, but he has also avoided giving up home runs. In his previous outings, opponents are averaging just 0.82 HR/9 Cabrera has accumulated a strikeout percentage of 27.0% and a per game average of 6.0. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 4.5 walks per outing.

In today’s game, Atlanta turns to starter Jake Odorizzi. For the year, he has a record of 4-3. To date, Odorizzi has an ERA of 3.75 while lasting an average of 5.0 innings per appearance. Odorizzi comes into the game with a batting average allowed of 0.23. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Odorizzi, as he is allowing just 0.75 per 9 innings. Odorizzi’s current strikeout average is 3.83 per game. This includes a K rate of 19.0%. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 2.55 walks per contest.

Miami vs Atlanta History

Today’s matchup between the Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves will be their 15th meeting of the season. Atlanta holds the edge in the series at 10-4. The over-under record in this series sits at 6-5. The average run total in these games is 9.74 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 2.5 runs. Atlanta won last year’s head-to-head series, grabbing 11 wins to 8. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 10-6. Last year, the Marlins and Braves averaged 9.74 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 2.58 runs per game.

More Picks: Read our analysis & get our HOU/LAA suggested bet for 9/3/22

Betting Trends

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami’s last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Miami’s last 13 games on the road
  • Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 6 games when playing at home against Miami

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Prediction

Heading into Saturday’s matchup between Miami and Atlanta, the Braves are the strong favorite on the moneyline. Marlins starter Edward Cabrera has yet to face the Braves this season but doesn’t have a great track record against some of the better hitting teams in the MLB. I recommend taking Atlanta on the runline.

Free MLB Pick: Braves Runline