Marlins vs. Phillies Betting Predictions

by | Jun 14, 2022 | mlb

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Tuesday, June 14th, 07:05 ET

Location: Citizens Bank Park

TV: Bally Sports Florida

Money Line: Marlins +130 / Phillies -155 (BetNow - Deposit up to $500 and receive a special 100% real cash bonus up to $500 when you use bonus code PREDICTEM)

Total Line: 8.5

STARTING PITCHING

Miami: Trevor Rogers (3-5, 5.58)
Philadelphia: Zach Eflin (2-4, 4.09)

Marlins Projected Lineup

Willians Astudillo 3B
Miguel Rojas SS
Jesus Sanchez CF
Avisaíl García RF
Jon Berti 3B
Jacob Stallings C
Jorge Soler LF
Jesús Aguilar 1B
Jasrado Chisholm Jr. 2B
Trevor Rogers P

Phillies Projected Lineup

Didi Gregorius SS
Matt Vierling RF
J.T. Realmuto C
Nick Castellanos RF
Alec Bohm 3B
Bryson Stott 2B
Bryce Harper RF
Kyle Schwarber LF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Zach Eflin P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Miami Marlins: 27-32-0 SU / OU 30-28-1 / Run Line W/L 32-27-0
Philadelphia Phillies: 31-30-0 SU / OU 35-24-2 / Run Line W/L 31-30-0

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Miami Marlins on Tuesday, June 14th at Citizens Bank Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:05 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Philadelphia as the favorite (-155), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

After suffering a 1 run loss to the Phillies (3-2), the Marlins will look to get back in the win column. Despite the loss, Miami’s pitching staff gave up only 3 runs on 10 hits. With their 6 hits, the Marlins could only muster 2 runs. The loss came as Miami was the betting underdog, getting 105.0 on the moneyline. Combined, the Marlins and Phillies fell short of the over-under betting line of 7.5 runs. However, for the season, Miami still has an overall over-under record of 30-28-1.

The Marlins come into this game with a 3-2 record in their last 5 contests. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +4. Their hot play has been driven by an offense that typically averages 4.47 runs per game. But, over this stretch, this figure has bumped up to 5.0. Miami’s overall series record is just 7-12-1.

The Phillies will look to add another win, as in their last game, they defeated the Marlins by a score of 3-2. For the game, the pitching staff held the Marlins to 2 runs on 6 hits. At the plate, the Phillies only came through for 3 runs on 10 hits. Philadelphia picked up the win while being favored at -125.0. So far, the team has won 55.0% of the games in which they were favored. With this result, the Phillies and Marlins combined to fall below the over-under line of 7.5 runs. Even still, Philadelphia games have still gone over the betting total over half of the time, at 35-24-2.

In their last 5 games, the Phillies have put together a record of 4-1. They have managed to pick up these wins despite having a negative run differential of their last 5 games (0). Philadelphia has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 4.6 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 4.79. Philadelphia has a below .500 series record of just 8-11-1.

Pitching Matchup

Miami will roll with Trevor Rogers (3-5) as their starter. So far, Rogers has put together an ERA of 5.58. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.55 innings. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the left-hander, with a batting average of 0.275. Opponents are hitting for power against Rogers, as his HR/9 figure sits at 1.44. Rogers has accumulated a strikeout percentage of 20.0% and a per-game average of 4.0. Command has been a problem for Rogers, as he is giving up 3.96 walks per outing.

In today’s game, Philadelphia turns to starter Zach Eflin. For the year, he has a record of 2-4. So far, Eflin has put together an ERA of 4.09. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 5.5 innings. Compared to other starters, the right-hander has a high BA allowed of 0.252. Throughout the season, Eflin has done a good job at limiting home runs, allowing 0.82 per 9 innings. Eflin has accumulated a strikeout percentage of 21.0% and a per-game average of 4.7. Eflin has done a good job at limiting walks, averaging just 2.13 per contest.

Miami vs Philadelphia History

For the season, the Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies will be playing their 6th game of the season. Miami has the lead in the series at 3-2. The over-under record in this series sits at 3-2. The average run total in these games is 7.74 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 4.6 runs. Going back to last year, Miami won the season series, 10 games to 9. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 7-11-1, with the average run total being 7.74 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.11 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
  • Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Philadelphia is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
  • Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Heading into Tuesday’s NL East matchup between Philadelphia and Miami, the Phillies are the favorite to pick up the win. In last night’s game, the Marlins missed out on an opportunity to slow down the red hot Phillies, as they blew a late lead. However, I see Philadelphia winning this game by a convincing margin. I like the Phillies on the runline.

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