Marlins vs. Phillies Odds & ML Bet

by | Last updated Aug 26, 2022 | mlb

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies
Date: Thursday August 11th, 01:05 ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park
TV: Bally Sports Florida
Money Line: Marlins 141 / Phillies -170
Total Line: 8.0


Miami: Edward Cabrera (2-1, 2.61)
Philadelphia: Kyle Gibson (7-4, 4.36)

Marlins Projected Lineup

Charles LeBlanc 3B
Jacob Stallings C
J.J. Bleday LF
Miguel Rojas SS
Bryan De La Cruz RF
Peyton Burdick CF
Jesús Aguilar 1B
Joey Wendle 2B
Garrett Cooper 1B
Edward Cabrera P

Phillies Projected Lineup

Jean Segura 2B
Bryson Stott SS
Nick Castellanos RF
Darick Hall 1B
Alec Bohm 3B
Brandon Marsh CF
J.T. Realmuto C
Kyle Schwarber LF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Kyle Gibson P


Miami Marlins: 49-60-0 SU / OU 49-56-5 / Run Line W/L 50-60-0
Philadelphia Phillies: 61-48-0 SU / OU 56-49-5 / Run Line W/L 58-52-0

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Miami Marlins on Thursday August 11th at Citizens Bank Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 01:05 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Philadelphia as the favorite (-170), with an OU line set at 8.0.

Recent Form

The Marlins will look to rebound from a close, 4-3 loss to the Phillies. On their way to giving up 4 runs, the Marlins staff allowed 8 hits. The Marlins ended the game with just 3 runs on 9 hits. Miami’s loss came as the underdog, getting 105.0 on the moneyline. Together, the Marlins and Phillies stayed below the over-under line set at 7.5 runs. With this result, Miami’s over-under record dropped even further, moving to just 49-56-5.

After their 5 most recent games, the Marlins have gone just 1-4. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -6. A key reason for Miami’s recent struggles is an offense averaging just 1.6 runs per game over their last 5 contests, compared to a season average of 3.81. Miami’s overall series record is just 10-21-5.

The Phillies will look to add another win, as in their last game, they defeated the Marlins by a score of 4-3. In the winning effort, the team’s pitchers held the Marlins to 3 runs and 9 hits. At the plate, the Phillies only came through for 4 runs on 8 hits. In the game, Philadelphia was able to take care of business as they were the favorite at -125.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 73 games, winning at a rate of 60.0%. Combined, the Phillies and Marlins’ run total fell below the over-under line of 7.5 runs. Philadelphia still has an above .500 over-under record at (56-49-5).

The Phillies come into the matchup looking to stay hot, going 5-0 over their last five contests. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +27. Compared to their season average, the Phillies come into this game swinging the bats well, averaging 7.8 runs per game. On the season, Philadelphia has won more than half of their series, going 17-15-3.

Pitching Matchup

The Miami Marlins will send Edward Cabrera to the mound with an overall record of 2-1. Through 4 appearances, Cabrera has an ERA of just 2.61 while averaging 5.05 innings per appearance. So far, batters are hitting just 0.141 against him. Per 9 innings pitched, Cabrera is averaging 0.89 home runs allowed. Up to this point, Cabrera has a strikeout percentage of just 27.0% and a per game average of 5.75. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 5.23 walks per contest.

Kyle Gibson gets the start for the Phillies, with an overall record of 7-4. To date, Gibson has an ERA of 4.36 while lasting an average of 5.49 innings per appearance. Gibson’s opponent batting average currently sits at 0.238. Opposing hitters are hitting home runs at an above-average rate against Gibson. This year, he is allowing 1.17 HR’s per 9 innings pitched. In terms of strikeouts, Kyle Gibson has a strong K% of 18.0%, including a per game average of 4.19. Command has been a problem for Gibson, as he is giving up 2.49 walks per outing.

Miami vs Philadelphia History

For the season, the Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies will be playing their 13th game of the season. Philadelphia holds the edge in the series at 8-4. The over-under record in this series sits at 5-7. The average run total in these games is 7.74 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 3.83 runs. Last season, Miami picked up the series win, 10 games to 9. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 7-11. Last year, the Marlins and Phillies averaged 7.74 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.11 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami’s last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami’s last 7 games on the road
  • Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Heading into Thursday’s National League East matchup between Miami and Philadelphia, the Phillies are the heavy favorite on the moneyline. Even though Marlins starter Edward Cabrera has shown some promise in his 4 outings, Philadelphia starter Kyle Gibson is coming off one of his best performances of the season. Look for the Phillies to come away with the win backed by another strong outing from Gibson.

Free MLB Pick: Phillies Moneyline

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