Mets vs. Braves 7/11/22 Game Odds & Predictions

by | Last updated Jul 11, 2022 | mlb

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves

Date: Monday, July 11th, 07:20 ET

Location: Truist Park

TV: Bally Sports South

Money Line: Mets +105 / Braves -125 (GTBets – 100% real cash bonus up to $500!)

Total Line: 7.5


New York: Max Scherzer (5-1, 2.26)
Atlanta: Max Fried (9-2, 2.52)

Mets Projected Lineup

Jeff McNeil RF
J.D. Davis 3B
Eduardo Escobar 3B
Starling Marte RF
Mark Canha LF
James McCann C
Francisco Lindor SS
Pete Alonso 1B
Brandon Nimmo CF
Max Scherzer P

Braves Projected Lineup

Adam Duvall LF
Orlando Arcia 2B
Travis d’Arnaud C
Ronald Acuña Jr. RF
Marcell Ozuna LF
Austin Riley 3B
Michael Harris II CF
Matt Olson 1B
Dansby Swanson SS
Max Fried P


New York Mets: 53-33-0 SU / OU 44-35-7 / Run Line W/L 46-40-0
Atlanta Braves: 52-35-0 SU / OU 42-42-3 / Run Line W/L 45-42-0

The Atlanta Braves host the New York Mets on Monday, July 11th at Truist Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:20 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Atlanta as the favorite (-125), with an OU line set at 7.5.

Recent Form

The Mets come into this game having suffered a 2-0 loss to the Marlins. In the losing effort, the pitching staff still held the Marlins to just 2 runs on 6 hits. The Mets ended the game with just 0 runs on 7 hits. This defeat came despite being favored at -115.0. So far, the team has been the favorite in 65 of their games, winning at a rate of 68.0%. This matchup remained below the over-under line set at 7.0 runs. New York games have still surpassed the over-under line more than half of the time, at 44-35-7.

The Mets come into this game with a 3-2 record over their last 5 contests. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +11. New York’s offense heads into action averaging 5.0 runs per game in their last 5 contests. Similar to their season average of 4.76. So far, New York has won over half of their 27 series played, going 19-5-3.

The Braves are coming off a tight 4-3 win over the Nationals. For the game, the pitching staff held the Nationals to 3 runs on 5 hits. With their 12 hits, the Braves could only muster 4 runs. In the game, Atlanta was able to take care of business as they were the favorite at -220.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 73 games, winning at a rate of 67.0%. With this result, the Braves and Nationals combined to fall below the over-under line of 10.0 runs. With this outcome, the team’s over-under record drops back to even at 42-42-3.

In their last 5 games, the Braves have put together a record of 4-1. Their recent success is backed by an average scoring margin of +14 (last 5). Atlanta has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 5.0 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 4.78. On the season, Atlanta has won more than half of their series, going 13-9-5.


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Pitching Matchup

The New York Mets will send Max Scherzer to the mound with an overall record of 5-1. Currently, Scherzer has an ERA of just 2.26 while pitching an average of 6.13 innings per outing. So far, batters are hitting just 0.193 against him. In addition, to his strong BA allowed, he has been able to limit power, allowing just 0.82 home runs allowed per 9 innings. On the season, Max Scherzer has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 33.0%. This includes a per game average of 7.78 K’s per game. Throughout the season, Scherzer has avoided walking batters, allowing just 1.78 per contest.

The Atlanta Braves will send Max Fried to the mound with an overall record of 9-2. Currently, Fried has a strong ERA of just 2.52 while pitching an average of 6.3 innings per outing. In his previous outings, right-hander opponents are hitting 0.231 off the right-hander. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Fried, as he is allowing just 0.5 per 9 innings. Per game, Max Fried is averaging 5.88, on a strikeout percentage of 24.0%. Fried has done a good job at limiting walks, averaging just 1.43 per contest.

New York vs Atlanta History

Today’s matchup between the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves will be their 5th meeting of the season. Today’s game will be a rubber match for the two teams, as New York and Atlanta each have 2 wins. The over-under record in this series sits at 3-1. The average run total in these games is 7.68 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 3.5 runs. Atlanta won last year’s head-to-head series, grabbing 10 wins to 9. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 7-11, with the average run total being 7.68 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.47 runs per game.

Betting Trends

  • NY Mets is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Mets’s last 6 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Atlanta’s last 10 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta’s last 9 games

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves Prediction

Heading into Monday’s showdown between New York and Atlanta, runs could be tough to come by with Max Scherzer and Max Fried on the mound. Currently, the Braves are the slight favorite on the moneyline, with an over-under line set at 7.5 runs. My best bet for this matchup is to take Atlanta on the moneyline, as New York’s bats have been inconsistent of late.

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