Mets vs. Cubs ML Prediction 7/16/22

by | Last updated Jul 16, 2022 | mlb

New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs
Date: Saturday, July 16th, 08:05 ET
Location: Wrigley Field
Money Line: Mets -135 / Cubs +113
Total Line: 9.0
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New York: Max Scherzer (6-1, 2.15) Chicago: Drew Smyly (2-5, 4.43)

Mets Projected Lineup

Jeff McNeil LF J.D. Davis 3B Eduardo Escobar 3B Starling Marte RF Mark Canha LF Tomás Nido C Francisco Lindor SS Pete Alonso 1B Brandon Nimmo CF Max Scherzer P

Cubs Projected Lineup

Frank Schwindel 1B Yan Gomes C Nico Hoerner SS Seiya Suzuki RF Patrick Wisdom 3B Christopher Morel SS Ian Happ LF Rafael Ortega CF Willson Contreras C Drew Smyly P


New York Mets: 56-34-0 SU / OU 46-37-7 / Run Line W/L 49-41-0 Chicago Cubs: 34-55-0 SU / OU 42-42-5 / Run Line W/L 43-46-0

The Chicago Cubs host the New York Mets on Saturday, July 16th at Wrigley Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 08:05 ET. The MLB Odds Board places New York as the favorite (-135), with an OU line set at 9.0.

Recent Form

The New York Mets are coming off a 8 run win over the Cubs by a score of 8-0. Overall, the team’s pitching staff limited the Cubs to 0 runs on 8 hits. The Mets lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 12 hits, leading to 8 runs. Heading into their last game, New York was the betting favorite at -135.0. So far, the team has been the favorite in 66 of their games, winning at a rate of 68.0%. This game went over the posted over-under line of 7.5 runs. This result is part of a larger trend, as New York has had the over has hit in more than half of their games (46-37-7).

The Mets come into this game with a 3-2 record over their last 5 contests. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at +10. New York has put together this record, despite averaging just 4.0 runs per game, compared to their season average of 4.77. So far, New York has won over half of their 29 series played, going 21-5-3.

Chicago will be looking to move on from a tough loss to the Mets by the score of 8-0. On their way to giving up 8 runs, the Cubs staff allowed 12 hits. Leading into Chicago’s loss, they were the underdogs, getting 115.0 on the moneyline. In their 59 games as the underdog, their straight-up win percentage sits at 37.0%. In terms of the over-under, the Cubs and Mets combined to surpass the line of 7.5 runs. This outcome moves the team’s over-under record back to .500 at 42-42-5.

The Cubs come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 0-5 over their last 5 games. This recent slump is backed by a scoring margin of -20 over their last 5 games. The team’s offense is partly to blame for their recent slump, as they have averaged just 2.8 runs over their last 5 game. Chicago has a below .500 series record of just 9-15-5.

Pitching Matchup

The New York Mets will send Max Scherzer to the mound with an overall record of 6-1. In his previous outings, Scherzer has lasted an average of 6.22 innings, putting together an ERA of just 2.15. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.186. Per 9 innings pitched, Scherzer is averaging 0.87 home runs allowed. Per game, Max Scherzer is averaging 7.9, on a strikeout percentage of 33.0%. Throughout the season, Scherzer has avoided walking batters, allowing just 1.58 per contest.

The Chicago Cubs will send Drew Smyly to the mound with an overall record of 2-5. To date, Smyly has an ERA of 4.43 while lasting an average of 4.42 innings per appearance. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, with a batting average of 0.274. Opposing hitters are hitting home runs at an above-average rate against Smyly. This year, he is allowing 1.63 HRs per 9 innings pitched. In terms of strikeouts, Smyly is averaging just 3.5 K’s per game. So far, he has struck out 18.0% of the batters he has faced. Throughout the season, Smyly has avoided walking batters, allowing just 2.22 per contest.

New York vs Chicago History

For the season, the New York Mets and Chicago Cubs will be playing their 2nd game of the season. New York has the lead in the series at 1-0. The over-under record in this series sits at 1-0. The average run total in these games is 7.71 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 8.0 runs. Dating back to last season, Chicago picked up 4 wins compared to 3, taking the season series. In these 7 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 2-5. Last year, the Mets and Cubs averaged 7.71 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.43 runs per contest.

Betting Trends

  • NY Mets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs
  • NY Mets is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
  • Chi Cubs is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Mets
  • Chi Cubs is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Mets

New York Mets at Chicago Cubs Prediction

Heading into Saturday’s matchup between New York and Chicago, the Mets have the edge on the moneyline. Even though the Mets are just 2-3 in Max Scherzer’s last 5 outings, over this stretch, he has given up just 6 runs. The Mets should have no problem providing run support vs Drew Smyle. I like New York on the moneyline.

Free MLB Pick: Mets Moneyline


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