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Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies Game 3 Prediction

by | Oct 7, 2018 | mlb

Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies 10/7/18

Time: 4:35 PM ET

Where: Coors Field, Denver, CO

Listed Pitchers: Wade Miley (Mil) vs. German Marquez (Col)

TV: MLB

Moneyline: Brewers +145/Rockies -155

Over/Under: 9.5

Milwaukee owns a 2-0 lead in this best-of-five NLDS and could close Colorado out with a win Sunday in Denver. Can the Rockies stave off elimination at home? And how are we playing this contest with our daily free MLB picks?

MLB Playoffs Betting Line

Sunday’s MLB playoff betting odds opened Colorado at around -145, with an over/under of 9.5 runs. The early betting action then bumped that line about a dime, to around -155.

The Rockies could also be found getting around +135 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Set-Up

The Brewers grabbed Game 1 of this series Thursday afternoon 3-2 in 10 innings, then took Game 2 Friday 4-0. Milwaukee won as a -170 favorite Thursday and at -160 Friday.

Also, both games in this series so far played under their totals.

The Brewers only led Friday’s game 1-0 until they pushed across three runs in the bottom of the eighth off the Colorado bullpen.

Milwaukee now owns a 10-game winning streak; its last loss came back on Sept. 22.

The Rockies, meanwhile, are just 2-4 over their last six games.

Milwaukee took the regular-season series from the Rockies five games to two, outscoring Colorado 35-29.

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Sunday’s Starters

Marquez (14-11, 3.77), by our strict standards, is 18/33 on quality starts this season and eight for his last 10. Monday, in that one-game playoff loss at the Dodgers, he gave up four runs – two earned – and five hits, including two homers, through 4 2/3 innings, but in his two starts previous to that he allowed just two runs through 13 innings. And over his last 10 starts, he’s allowed more than two ER just once.

On the season the Rockies are 19-14 with Marquez, 7-3 over his last 10 outings.

In two starts this season against the Brewers Marquez allowed seven runs and 15 hits through 11 2/3 innings. Colorado lost both those games.

Lefty Miley (5-2, 2.57) is 7/16 on quality starts this year, but 0 for his last four. Eight days ago he gave up three runs and five hits through just three innings against Detroit, and just before that he gave up three runs in four innings against Pittsburgh. But in his four starts previous to that he held opponents to only four runs through 23 1/3 frames. On the season Milwaukee is 12-4 with Miley, 7-0 over his last seven outings.

In one start this season against the Rockies Miley allowed three runs and five hits through five innings of a 5-4 Milwaukee loss.

Taking it all into account we’re calling this pitching match-up a push.

Sunday’s Batting Splits

The Brewers posted a .252/.323/.426 team batting average/OBP/slugging percentage split against right-handed pitching this season.

The Rockies put up a .272/.336/.462 split against left-handed pitching this year. But this lineup has also scored a total of just six runs over its last four games.

Still, we’ll give Colorado a short edge in the splits with the sticks for Sunday.

The Bullpens

The Milwaukee bullpen posted a 3.47 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP this season while going 49/74 on save opportunities.

The Rockies pen put up a 4.62 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP this year while going 51/78 on save opps.

We’ll give the Brewers the advantage in the comparison of the bullpens.

Totals Report

  • Unders played 46-33 in games played at Coors Field this year, although Rockies home games averaged a healthy 10.5 total runs per, second-most among all ML ballparks. Obviously, games played in Denver regularly face very high totals.
  • Unders are 6-3 in Rockies-Brewers games this season, 3-1 in games played at Coors Field.

Free MLB Picks

We’re giving Milwaukee half a star with our main baseball handicapping factors. Also, the Brewers are a hot outfit at the moment, riding a 10-game winnings streak. Plus they’re getting an underdog price. We’re betting the Brew Crew at YouWager and guys if you don’t already have an account here then there is no better time than now to take advantage of their 100% bonus offer!