Milwaukee Brewers s. Atlanta Braves Pick

by | May 17, 2019 | mlb

Milwaukee Brewers (27-19) vs. Atlanta Braves (23-21), 5/17/19
Time: 7:20 pm ET
Where: SunTrust Park, Cumberland, GA
Listed Pitchers: Jhoulys Chacin (3-4, 4.57 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) vs. Max Fried (5-2, 3.25, 1.20)
TV: FS Wisconsin, FS South

Moneyline: Braves -135/Brewers +130
Over/Under: 9

Defending National League division champions meet when the Brewers and Braves open a three-game weekend series in Atlanta Friday night. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Friday’s MLB betting odds opened Atlanta at around -130 over Milwaukee, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then bumped that line to -135.

The Braves could also be found getting around +150 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Brewers vs. Braves Set-Up

Milwaukee just took three of four games from the Phillies in Philly, with the Phillies winning the one game where we backed them on Monday. The Brewers won Thursday’s series finale 11-3. The Brewers trailed the Phillies Thursday 3-2 through three innings, then scored the last nine runs of the game. Milwaukee also bonked four homers on the day.

So the Brew Crew now owns a three-game winning streak. At 27-19 overall Milwaukee sits in second place in the NL Central, just a half-game behind the division-leading Cubs.

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Atlanta, meanwhile, just took two of three games at home from St. Louis, winning Thursday’s series rubber match 10-2. The Braves scored twice in the second inning to take the lead for good, added three more in the third and three more in the sixth to pull away. Atlanta also rapped out 14 hits on the day.

Just before that the Braves took three of four games at Arizona. So Atlanta is 5-1 over its last six games.

At 23-21 overall the Braves sit in second place in the NL East, a game and a half behind the first-place Phillies.

This series is the first meeting between these teams this season. Last year Milwaukee took the season series from Atlanta four games to three.

Friday’s Starting Arms

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played last July at Miller Park, a 7-2 Brewers victory.

Lefty Fried is 5/8 on quality starts this season but 0 for his last two. Last Sunday he gave up three runs and nine hits through five innings of a 5-3 Braves victory over the Diamondbacks. And just before that he couldn’t get out of the second inning against the Dodgers, getting tagged for four runs while recording three outs, leaving the game after getting hit on the foot with a line drive. But prior to that dude was going pretty good, allowing just nine earned runs through his first 38 1/3 innings of this season.

Atlanta is 5-3 in Fried’s starts this season.

In Fried’s only start against Milwaukee last year, that 7-2 Braves loss, Fried allowed four runs on four hits and three walks through just three innings.

Chacin, by our strict accounting, is only 2/9 on quality starts this season, but two for his last three. Last Sunday he held the Cubs to two runs – one earned – through six innings, although Milwaukee lost that game 4-1. And over his last three starts he’s allowed just three ER and 11 hits through 17 innings.

The Brewers are 4-5 with Chacin this season, but 2-1 over his last three starts.

In his most recent start against the Braves, that 7-2 Milwaukee victory last July, Chacin allowed just two runs and three hits through seven frames, with seven strikeouts.

Friday’s Batting Splits

  • Milwaukee is batting .256/.338/.455 against left-handed pitching this season. This lineup has also scored 22 runs over its last three games.
  • Atlanta is batting .255/.336/.426 against right-handed pitching this season. This lineup has also scored 28 runs over its last five games.

The Bullpens

  • The Brewers bullpen owns a 4.01 ERA this season and a 1.22 WHIP, while converting 14 of 17 save opportunities.
  • The Braves bullpen owns a 4.51 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP, while converting 11 of 17 save opps.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 27-18 in Brewers games this season.
  • Overs are 23-19 in Braves games this season.
  • The totals are split 11-11 in games played at SunTrust Park this season.
  • Overs are 5-3 in Fried’s starts this season.
  • Unders are 7-2 with Chacin this season.
  • Overs finished 5-2 in Brewers-Braves games last season

Free MLB Pick

Atlanta may own a slight edge in this pitching match-up but Chacin is Milwaukee’s horse. Also, we give the Brewers short advantages with the sticks and in the bullpen comparison. Plus, the Brew Crew is getting the underdog price. We like Milwaukee for our free MLB pick for Friday.