Milwaukee Brewers (65-65) +145 at Chicago Cubs (66-63), 8:05 pm Eastern Tuesday
by Zman of Predictem.com
The battle of attrition in the National League’s Central division continues when the Milwaukee Brewers hit Second City for the opener of a three-game series with the Cubs at Wrigley Field Tuesday night.
Chicago leads Milwaukee by a game and a half in the NL Central. And if the Brewers want to be playing into October, they’d better beat out the Cubs, because they’re six games back of San Diego in the NL wild-card race.
Milwaukee has lost four games in a row and is a sorry 7-16 this month. Chicago just lost two of three games in Arizona over the weekend, and is just 10-14 in August.
The Brewers are 25-40 on the road this season, and 11-23 as underdogs.
The Cubs are 33-31 at home this year, but only 55-52 when favored.
Chicago leads the season series with Milwaukee this year seven games to five, with the o/u going 8-3-1. Last year, these two teams split 16 games, with the o/u going 9-5-2.
Jeff Suppan (8-11, 4.85) is slated to start for the Brewers in Tuesday’s opener against Rich Hill (7-7, 3.67) for the Cubs. Suppan has allowed 11 ER and 36 baserunners (hits + walks) in his last 24 IP. Milwaukee is 13-14 when Suppan starts this year, the o/u 13-12.
Suppan has made five starts vs. Chicago over the last two seasons, three as a member of the St. Louis Cardinals last year. He’s given up 11 ER and 47 baserunners in 30 IP in those games, and his teams have gone 2-3.
Hill has allowed 11 ER and 28 baserunners in his last 26 2/3 IP. The Cubs are 11-14 in Hill’s starts this season, the o/u 7-16.
In four starts vs. the Brewers over the last two seasons, Hill has given up 12 ER and 25 baserunners in 23 2/3 IP. Chicago is 3-1 in those games.
Milwaukee owns a .327 team OBP this season, which ranks 20th in the majors, and is averaging 4.8 runs per game.
The Cubs rank 19th in team OBP at .329 and are averaging 4.6 RPG.
The Brewers bullpen has allowed nine ER and 25 baserunners in its last 18 IP.
The Chicago pen has given up two ER and 18 baserunners in its last 13 1/3 IP.
Cubs OF Alfonso Soriano is expected to come off the DL in time to play in Tuesday night’s game. Chicago is 8-11 over the last three weeks with Soriano out of action because of a quad injury.
The o/u is 69-54 in Milwaukee games this year, 55-67 in Cubs games, and 32-30 at Wrigley Field. Also, Chicago’s last six games have all gone under.
The Predictem Pick: Lay the wood and take the Cubbies to win.