Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Pick 7/17/21
When: 7:10 p.m., Saturday, July 17
Where: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
Moneyline: MIL -120/CIN +110 (Bovada - Bet games live-in-progress! The BEST live wagering platform on the web! Credit cards work there and you get a 50% bonus too!)
Runline: Brewers -1.5/Reds +1.5
Starting Pitchers: Brandon Woodruff (7-4, 2.06 ERA, 0.82 WHIP) vs. Luis Castillo (3-10, 4.65 ERA, 1.41 WHIP)
Giving It All Back
The Reds ended the “first half” of the season with three straight wins in Milwaukee and came in as winners of six of their past seven against the Brewers. The problem is, Cincinnati is now in serious danger of giving it all back to Milwaukee, as a sweep here would make it very difficult for the Reds to find their way back into the race in the NL Central. Cincinnati realistically needed a sweep here to cut the margin to two and put pressure on Milwaukee because the Reds will only see the Brewers for three more games in August before the season comes to a close.
Instead, they’re now down to five games back after failing to get the job done on Friday night, and they could be facing a situation where they’re down seven with 67 games to play. That’s hardly insurmountable, but every game where they don’t play the Brewers means they can’t do anything about whether they can gain ground on Milwaukee. It doesn’t matter how many games have where the Reds can beat up on the Pirates if the Brewers can neutralize them simply by matching Cincinnati’s result.
Set It and Forget It
Brandon Woodruff has been one of the most reliable “Under” pitchers in 2021, amassing 13 “Unders” in 18 starts. Plus, only three times all season has he given up more than two runs in a start. One was his first start of the season, one came in the thin air of Denver, where the Rockies sometimes turn into the 1927 Yankees, and the third was his most recent road start, which saw him give up four runs to the Mets. Even with that showing, the game still went under the total, as those four runs were all that the Mets ever got.
Interestingly, when the game has gone over the total with Woodruff pitching, he’s never been the one at fault for that occurrence. All five games where the total has gone over have been because Milwaukee brought its bats to life and gave Woodruff plenty of support, and the results reflect that, as the Brewers are 5-0 when the over hits during one of Woodruff’s starts.
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Reversal of Expectations
You’d think Luis Castillo would be more comfortable in his own park than on the road, but against the Brewers, Castillo defies expectations. So far, he’s faced Milwaukee four times this season (all of them in his past ten starts), and he’s been brilliant when he gets to pitch at American Family Field in Milwaukee, holding the Brewers to just one earned run in 12.1 innings and allowing his team to pick up a pair of victories.
At home, it’s been another story. In 10.2 innings, Castillo has allowed Milwaukee to score eight runs, and he hasn’t made it to the sixth inning in either home start against the Brewers. His strikeout numbers are roughly the same in each park, and he’s only given up one home run all season to Milwaukee, so the short fences in Cincinnati aren’t the reason unless they’re getting inside Castillo’s head against Milwaukee’s lineup. Given that the Brewers rank 29th in batting average and are only middling in terms of home runs, that’d be an odd explanation. Still, nothing else really makes sense as to why Castillo pitches so much better in Milwaukee than in Cincinnati.
- The Brewers are 23-6 following a win.
- The Brewers are 6-2 in their past eight games on the road.
- The Reds are 9-2 in their past 11 against the NL Central.
- The Reds are 7-2 in their past nine against a team with a winning record.
- The under is 7-1 in the Brewers’ past eight games.
- The under is 9-1 in the Reds’ past ten against the NL Central.
- The under is 10-2 in the Reds’ past 12 games overall.
- The Brewers are 5-1 in their past six trips to Cincinnati.
- The under is 6-1 in the teams’ past seven meetings.
It’s going to be a comfortable night for baseball in the Queen’s City, with temperatures at 81 degrees and winds blowing at six miles per hour toward right center.
The Reds are at home and badly need this game, but there’s no way I’m going to pick against Woodruff here. The Brewers took a loss in his only start against the Reds this year, but that wasn’t his fault at all, as he held Cincinnati to one run in six innings of work and watched as the bullpen allowed the Reds to take control of the game.
I don’t think that happens again here. Give me Milwaukee. Bet your baseball picks FREE this weekend by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook! (Must use promo/bonus code PREDICT100 to receive the special offer!)
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