Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins Picks 8/20/20

by | Aug 20, 2020 | mlb

Milwaukee Brewers (11-11) vs. Minnesota Twins (16-9), 8/20/20

Time: 7:10 pm ET Thursday, Aug. 20

Where: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN

Listed Pitchers: Brandon Woodruff (1-1, 3.16) vs. Jose Berrios (1-3, 5.92)

TV: FS North, FS Wisconsin, FS 1

Moneyline: Brewers +105/Twins -115

Over/Under: 9

After splitting the first two games of this border battle series the Brewers and Twins will settle things with a rubber match Thursday evening in Minneapolis. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Thursday’s MLB betting odds at MyBookie opened Minnesota and Berrios at around -130 over Milwaukee and Woodruff, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then dropped the Twins 15 cents, to -115.

Brewers vs. Twins Set-Up

Minnesota took the opener of this series Tuesday night 4-3 in 12 innings, but Milwaukee bounced back to take Wednesday’s game 9-3. The Twins won Tuesday as -150 favorites on the MLB betting odds while the Brewers won Wednesday as +145 underdogs.

With Wednesday’s defeat, the Twins are still 5-2 over their last seven games. At 16-9 overall, Minnesota is now tied with Cleveland for the lead in the AL Central and now trails Oakland by one game in the battle for the best record in the American League.

With Wednesday’s victory, the Brewers are 4-1 over their last five games. At 11-11 overall, Milwaukee occupies second place in the NL Central, four games behind the first-place Cubs. But second place makes the playoffs this season.

The Twins now lead the season series with the Brewers three games to two.

Thursday’s Starting Arms

After going 14-8 last year, Berrios is off to a tough start to this season. So far, he’s just 1/5 on quality starts, after giving up four runs on five hits and four walks through four innings of a 4-2 Twins loss to Kansas City last Saturday. And just before that, he gave up four runs through 5 1/3 innings of another 4-2 loss to the Royals.

On the season, Berrios has allowed 16 runs on 27 hits and 13 walks through 24 1/3 innings. Minnesota, a team that’s seven games above .500 overall, is only 2-3 with Berrios this year.

In his only career start against Milwaukee back in 2018, Berrios allowed three runs on five hits – three of which were solo homers – through seven innings of a 3-2 Minnesota loss at Miller Park.

Woodruff is 2/5 on quality starts this season. Last Friday, he gave up three runs and four hits through 4 1/3 innings of a 4-3 Brewers win over the Cubs. And just before that, he allowed two runs through four frames of a 9-3 Milwaukee victory over Cincinnati.

On the season, Woodruff has allowed nine runs on 20 hits and seven walks through 25 2/3 innings. The Brewers are 3-2 with him.

In his only career start against Minnesota back in 2017, Woodruff allowed two runs through 5 2/3 innings of a 4-0 Milwaukee loss.

Thursday’s Batting Splits

Milwaukee is batting just .203 this season against right-handed pitching, with a .279 team OBP and a .333 team slugging percentage, all of which combines to rank the Brewers right down near the bottom in the Majors in this split. But the Brew Crew also broke loose Wednesday night with four home runs.

Minnesota is batting .236/.316/.432 against RH pitching this season. But the Twins have also scored a total of just 21 runs over their last six games.

The Bullpens

The Brewers bullpen owns a 3.09 ERA this season and a 1.12 WHIP.

The Twins pen owns a 3.46 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.

MLB Betting Trends

  • Milwaukee is 9-5 on the road this season.
  • Minnesota is 11-3 at home this season.
  • Milwaukee is 6-9 against right-handed starters this season.
  • Minnesota is 13-5 vs. RH starters this season.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 11-10 in Brewers games this season.
  • Unders are 16-9 in Twins games this season.
  • Unders are a lopsided 12-2 in games played at Target Field this season but that sounds like a trend due for a correction.
  • Overs are 3-2 in Brewers-Twins games this season.

Free MLB Pick

Woodruff gets our check-mark in the pitching match-up, and while Minnesota owns an edge with the sticks Milwaukee owns the edge in the bullpen comparison. We don’t like the direction the price is going on this game but we’re betting the Brewers with our free MLB pick. Did you know that you can bet on baseball games AFTER they’ve started? One of the best in-game betting platforms is at BetOnline.(See our BetOnline Review) They’ll give you a nice welcome bonus too! Check’em out!